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Not a lot of top-tier reports scheduled from the Land Down Under this week, but that doesn’t mean we’ll see lack of volatility! Check out the catalysts that can affect AUD’s price action in the next few days.

Gov Lowe’s speech (Dec 9, 10:05 pm GMT)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe will give a speech at the AusPayNet Summit in Sydney
  • RBA Assistant Governor Michele Bullock will be there as well, and will give her two cents on December 10 at 2:45 am GMT
  • Lowe has said that negative interest rates are “extremely unlikely,” but has not said no to “unconventional” monetary policies
  • Though the RBA held its rates steady last week, some analysts are predicting rate cuts early next year
  • RBA will also print a quarterly bulletin on December 12 at 12:30 am GMT

Business and consumer sentiment

  • National Australia Bank (NAB) will print a business confidence index, which clocked in at +2 October after printing at “0” in September
  • Westpac is publishing a consumer sentiment report on December 10 at 11:30 pm GMT
  • Melbourne Institute is releasing an inflation expectations report on December 12 at 12:00 am GMT

China-related data (December 10, 1:30 am GMT)

  • China’s headline CPI is expected to gain 4.2% after coming in at 3.8% from a year ago in October
  • Annualized producer prices is expected to come in at -1.4% in November, better than its -1.6% reading in October
  • After seeing weak trade numbers earlier today, traders will be on the lookout for further weaknesses in China’s economic activities

Overall risk sentiment

  • All eyes will be on the Trump administration and the POTUS’ decision on the tariffs that will take effect on December 15
  • China has eased tensions by planning to waive tariffs on some U.S. soybeans and pork late last week
  • White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow has warned that there’s no “arbitrary deadline” on a Phase One deal with China, and that Trump “would not hesitate to increase tariffs” if he’s not satisfied with the negotiations
  • The FOMC is expected to maintain its policies this week. Its dot plot and economic projections will likely stimulate more volatility
  • The U.K. elections on Thursday could also affect overall risk sentiment

Technical snapshot

  • GBP/AUD is “bullish” on the short and long-term SMAs
  • AUD/NZD is “bearish” on the short and long-term SMAs
  • EUR/AUD is “bearish” on the short-term SMAs and “bullish but weakening” on the longer-term SMAs
  • AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF are “bullish” on the short-term SMAs and “bearish but weakening” on the longer-term SMAs

  • AUD has been most volatile against GBP and EUR in the past 30 days, followed by JPY, NZD, and CAD

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for December 2 – 6!