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The New Zealand dollar took the lead early and never looked back thanks to a combination of global trade optimism, rising positive sentiment from NZ data, and as the RBNZ looks to hold off of rate cuts for now.
New Zealand Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- New Zealand export prices riding high on meat and dairy
- Strong start to the week for Kiwi bulls, possibly on positive global risk sentiment rising after news that China released a better-than-expected read on Chinese manufacturing activity over the weekend, as well as news that China spared trade in their first retaliation to the U.S.’s Hong Kong law, reducing the odds of the tensions between the two countries escalating.
Tuesday:
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade auction yielded 0.5% dip in prices
- Somewhat of a pullback among Kiwi pairs starting in the Tuesday London session, likely in reaction to rising negative risk sentiment that seems to correlate with Trump’s comments that the China trade deal has ‘no deadline’ and that it could possibly come after next year’s U.S. elections. Comments that the U.S. may propose tariffs on French goods was also likely a contributor to negative global risk sentiment.
Wednesday:
Thursday:
- Quick rally in the Kiwi against the majors, possibly on a reaction to RBNZ’s capital requirements and deadline being softer than markets had expected, but more likely in reaction to RBNZ’s Orr comments that the central bank is in a “hold phase” in monetary policy. This was a short-lived pop for the bulls as the Kiwi drifted back to pre-RBNZ event levels by the start of the U.S. session, but the bulls took back control, likely on improving U.S.-China trade sentiment after comments from Trump that trade talks with China are going ‘very well’ and news that Chinese officials are in “close contact” with their U.S. counterparts on trade negotiations.
Friday:
- No major catalysts from New Zealand to attribute the Friday rally, so its likely the Asia and London session Kiwi rally was off of news that China will waive tariffs on some U.S. soybeans and pork in goodwill gesture towards reaching a trade deal.