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A growing lead for the Conservatives according to the latest polls helped support the British pound to another net positive week, despite a fresh round of contractionary business sentiment data.
United Kingdom Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- UK manufacturing contracts as political and economic uncertainty continues
- UK PM Johnson’s Conservatives maintain seven-point lead over Labour: ICM poll
- A net negative move on the session for Sterling, likely on a combination of the aforementioned contraction in U.K. Manufacturing, and counter currency flows as the higher-yielding currencies rallied on positive news from China (a better-than-expected read on Chinese manufacturing activity) and news that China spared trade in their first retaliation to the U.S.’s Hong Kong law.
Tuesday:
- UK shoppers cast off Brexit blues to spend more in November – BRC
- Slowest decline in UK construction output since July
- UK PM Johnson’s Lead Over Labour Holds at 9 Points: YouGov Poll
Wednesday:
- Renewed decline in UK service sector activity from 50.0 in October to 49.3 in November
- UK’s Johnson has 10-point lead over Labour before election: Savanta ComRes poll
- The rally in Sterling doesn’t really correlate to any election polling news or economic data, so it’s possible it was a run up on positive global risk sentiment related to positive global business activity updates (Chinese Caixin services PMI up from 51.1 to 53.5 and German business activity growth ticks higher but remains modest).
Thursday:
Friday:
- Conservative lead over Labour narrows to 12 points – Ipsos MORI poll – the dip in Sterling during the London session was likely a reaction to this latest poll data
- UK house prices in Nov. were 2.1% higher than in the same month a year earlier
- UK’s Labour leader says leaked report exposes PM Johnson’s Brexit claims
