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Global risk sentiment weighed on the Loonie last week. Can the bulls get back in the game this week?

Here are potential catalysts that can move the Canadian dollar:

Current account (Nov 28, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Canada’s current account deficit narrowed from 16.6B CAD in Q1 to 6.4B CAD in Q2 2019, the smallest deficit since 2008
  • The report, together with optimistic news on the U.S.-China trade negotiations, pushed CAD higher across the board
  • Analysts see the deficit expanding to 9.0B CAD in Q3 2019

Monthly GDP (Nov 29, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • The economy grew by 0.1% in August after a 0.0% reading in July
  • The three-month rolling average came in at 0.5% in August, slower than the 0.8% average in July
  • Manufactured goods led the increase though services produced also rose
  • CAD inched higher against its counterparts but stayed within its intraweek ranges
  • Market players predict a 0.1% monthly GDP in September and a 1.3% annualized GDP (from 3.7%) in Q3

Market risk sentiment

  • Watch out for comments from oil ministers ahead of the OPEC meeting in December 5. Remember, markets are expecting an extension of the group’s output cut deal
  • Keep tabs on U.S.-China trade updates. Traders will want to see if a “phase one” deal could be signed within the year, or whether the Trump admin can delay or water down the next set of tariffs worth around $156B due on December 15

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging CAD as “oversold” against NZD and USD on the daily time frame

  • USD/CAD is bullish on both short and long-term SMAs
  • Except for a 0.19% move above its 5 SMA, CAD/JPY is bearish all around
  • Except for a 0.13% move above its 5 SMA, GBP/CAD is bullish all around
  • NZD/CAD is still 2.05% below its 200 SMA even though shorter-term SMAs paint a bullish scenario

Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for November 18 – 22!