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AUD took hits from a surprising RBA minutes and weak global sentiment. Can the bulls turn things around with this week’s catalysts?

RBA members’ speeches

  • Deputy Governor Guy Debelle will give a speech titled “Employment and Wages” in Canberra on Nov 25, 11:50 pm GMT
  • Governor Philip Lowe has a speech titled “Unconventional Monetary Policy: Some Lessons from Overseas” in Sydney on Nov 26, 9:05 am GMT
  • The last RBA meeting minutes suggested that central bank members had seriously considered another rate cut. Keep an eye out for remarks that would hint at further rate cuts (or other stimulative policies) in the first months of 2020

Private capex (Nov 28, 12:30 am GMT)

China’s official PMIs (Nov 30, 1:00 am GMT)

  • Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3 in October, lower than the 49.8 reading seen in September
  • Non-manufacturing PMI also disappointed at 52.8 after a 53.7 reading in the previous month
  • AUD kicked higher despite the weak reports thanks to Australian data that came in way better than analysts had expected
  • Market players see the manufacturing PMI improving from 49.3 to 49.5 in November
  • The non-manufacturing PMI could jump from 52.8 to 53.1
  • Traders will look for the potential impact of the U.S.-China trade war on China’s leading indicators

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic paints the Aussie as “oversold” against EUR, JPY, USD, and NZD

  • Williams %R only reinforced the oversold status against NZD and is nearly there against USD

  • Only AUD/USD is bearish across all SMA settings though AUD/NZD might catch up

  • AUD has been most volatile against GBP, EUR, and JPY in the last 30 days

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for November 18 – 22!