Kiwi fared a bit better than its counterparts last week. Can this week’s catalysts widen the lead?
Quarterly retail sales (Nov 25, 9:45 pm GMT)
- Headline retail sales came in at 0.2% in Q2 2019, lower than Q1’s 0.7% but higher than 0.1% expected
- Core retail sales clocked in at 0.3%, lower than Q1’s 0.6% but higher than the expected 0.2% uptick
- Mixed updates with sales volume higher in 7 industries and lower for 8
- NZD shot up at the better-than-expected release and maintained its gains until the start of London trading
- Retail sales is expected at 0.5% in Q3 2019
- Core retail sales could come in at 0.6% after printing at 0.3% in Q2
Trade balance (Nov 26, 9:45 pm GMT)
- NZ trade deficit narrowed down from 1,580M NZD from a year ago to 1,242M NZD in September
- Exports gained 5.1% after a 2.6% gain in August, while imports fell by 2.1% after a 3.0% increase in August
- At the time, trade war risks and market risk aversion had limited NZD’s gains
- Traders see the trade deficit narrowing further to 1,000M NZD in October
ANZ business confidence (Nov 28, 12:00 am GMT)
- Business confidence jumped 12 points to -42% in October
- Respondents still expected business conditions to deteriorate, however
- NZD was boosted higher during the session and didn’t lose its gains until the start of London trading
- Williams %R says that NZD is “overbought” against ALL of its counterparts on the daily time frame
- Stochastic only reinforced the overbought signal against AUD, CAD, and CHF
- NZD/CHF, NZD/JPY, NZD/CAD, and NZD/USD are “bullish” in the short-term and are “bearish but weakening” when longer MAs are used. Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities!
- AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD, and GBP/NZD are “bearish” in the short-term but only AUD/NZD and EUR/NZD are “bullish but weakening” with the longer-term SMAs
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for November 18 – 22!