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Kiwi fared a bit better than its counterparts last week. Can this week’s catalysts widen the lead?

Quarterly retail sales (Nov 25, 9:45 pm GMT)

  • Headline retail sales came in at 0.2% in Q2 2019, lower than Q1’s 0.7% but higher than 0.1% expected
  • Core retail sales clocked in at 0.3%, lower than Q1’s 0.6% but higher than the expected 0.2% uptick
  • Mixed updates with sales volume higher in 7 industries and lower for 8
  • NZD shot up at the better-than-expected release and maintained its gains until the start of London trading
  • Retail sales is expected at 0.5% in Q3 2019
  • Core retail sales could come in at 0.6% after printing at 0.3% in Q2

Trade balance (Nov 26, 9:45 pm GMT)

  • NZ trade deficit narrowed down from 1,580M NZD from a year ago to 1,242M NZD in September
  • Exports gained 5.1% after a 2.6% gain in August, while imports fell by 2.1% after a 3.0% increase in August
  • At the time, trade war risks and market risk aversion had limited NZD’s gains
  • Traders see the trade deficit narrowing further to 1,000M NZD in October

ANZ business confidence (Nov 28, 12:00 am GMT)

  • Business confidence jumped 12 points to -42% in October
  • Respondents still expected business conditions to deteriorate, however
  • NZD was boosted higher during the session and didn’t lose its gains until the start of London trading

Technical snapshot

  • Williams %R says that NZD is “overbought” against ALL of its counterparts on the daily time frame

  • Stochastic only reinforced the overbought signal against AUD, CAD, and CHF

  • NZD/CHF, NZD/JPY, NZD/CAD, and NZD/USD are “bullish” in the short-term and are “bearish but weakening” when longer MAs are used. Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities!
  • AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD, and GBP/NZD are “bearish” in the short-term but only AUD/NZD and EUR/NZD are “bullish but weakening” with the longer-term SMAs



Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for November 18 – 22!