Partner Center Find a Broker

Optimism over a trade deal and a couple of positive data kept the dollar afloat last week. Which catalysts can influence its price action this week?

Durable goods orders (Nov 27, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • The survey measures the value of long-lasting goods purchasers have placed and is a good indicator of business confidence
  • Headline durable goods dipped by 1.2% in September after a 0.3% gain in August
  • Core durable goods (excluding transport items) also slipped by 0.4% after a 0.3% increase in August
  • Analysts see the headline figure at -0.4% (from -1.2%) while core durable goods could come in at 0.3% (from -0.4%)

Preliminary GDP (Nov 27, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • “Preliminary” reading is the second GDP estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
  • Advance GDP for Q3 2019 showed an annualized reading of 1.9%, lower than Q2’s 2.0% uptick but higher than the expected 1.6% increase
  • Price index for GDP purchases was up by 1.4%, lower than the 2.2% growth seen in Q2
  • Analysts see the preliminary GDP maintaining its 1.9% initial reading

Core PCE price index (Nov 27, 3:00 pm GMT)

  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that excludes food and energy prices is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation
  • Core PCE prices stagnated in September after gaining 0.1% in August
  • The release, together with reports that consumer spending had only moderately increased, dragged on USD during the trading session
  • Market players see core PCE prices rising by 0.3% in October
  • Pay attention to other consumer-related reports (ex. Personal income, spending) for clues on consumer activity trends in the U.S.

Shorter trading week

  • Watch out for profit-taking from existing intraweek trends as U.S. traders pack up for the Thanksgiving holidays
  • Reactions to data releases may also not see as much volatility as some traders clear their desks even before the actual Thanksgiving break

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging USD as “overbought” against CHF, AUD, and CAD

  • Williams %R, on the other hand, is signalling that USD is “overbought” against CHF and AUD and “oversold” against NZD

  • 50 and 200 SMAs suggest that EUR/USD and AUD/USD are on “bearish” trends while GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD are on “bullish” trends on the daily time frame