USD Weekly Forecast (Nov. 25 – 29)

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Optimism over a trade deal and a couple of positive data kept the dollar afloat last week. Which catalysts can influence its price action this week?

Durable goods orders (Nov 27, 1:30 pm GMT)

The survey measures the value of long-lasting goods purchasers have placed and is a good indicator of business confidence
Headline durable goods dipped by 1.2% in September after a 0.3% gain in August
Core durable goods (excluding transport items) also slipped by 0.4% after a 0.3% increase in August
Analysts see the headline figure at -0.4% (from -1.2%) while core durable goods could come in at 0.3% (from -0.4%)

“Preliminary” reading is the second GDP estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Advance GDP for Q3 2019 showed an annualized reading of 1.9%, lower than Q2’s 2.0% uptick but higher than the expected 1.6% increase
Price index for GDP purchases was up by 1.4%, lower than the 2.2% growth seen in Q2
Analysts see the preliminary GDP maintaining its 1.9% initial reading

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that excludes food and energy prices is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation
Core PCE prices stagnated in September after gaining 0.1% in August
The release, together with reports that consumer spending had only moderately increased, dragged on USD during the trading session
Market players see core PCE prices rising by 0.3% in October
Pay attention to other consumer-related reports (ex. Personal income, spending) for clues on consumer activity trends in the U.S.

Watch out for profit-taking from existing intraweek trends as U.S. traders pack up for the Thanksgiving holidays
Reactions to data releases may also not see as much volatility as some traders clear their desks even before the actual Thanksgiving break

Williams %R, on the other hand, is signalling that USD is “overbought” against CHF and AUD and “oversold” against NZD

50 and 200 SMAs suggest that EUR/USD and AUD/USD are on “bearish” trends while GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD are on “bullish” trends on the daily time frame