No love for the Loonie this week as geopolitical sentiment dragged oil prices and the Canadian dollar to levels it couldn’t fully recover from, despite some positive comments from the Bank of Canada.
Overlay of CAD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
CAD Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
Canadian Headlines and Economic data
Tuesday:
- Canadian Manufacturing sales edged down 0.2% in September to $57.4 billion, following a 0.8% increase in August
- Canada in ‘good position’ to weather possible economic storm: central bank
- Canadian home prices dip in October as seasonal pressures weigh
- Canadian data was mixed on the session, so it’s likely the broad drop in the Loonie was highly influenced by the fall in oil as trade talks dragged on.
Overlay of CAD Pairs & Oil (Black Line): 1-Hour Forex Chart
Wednesday:
- Canadian inflation holds steady at 1.9% in October, remains on target
Thursday:
- ADP Canada National Employment Report: Employment in Canada Decreased by 22,600 Jobs in October 2019
- Monetary conditions about right given the economic situation – Bank of Canada’s Poloz – this was a pretty big intraday catalyst for the Loonie as it reduced the odds of a December rate cut in traders’ eyes. It’s also possible oil strength played a factor as well after news of OPEC+ likely to extend oil supply cuts until June.
Friday:
- Canadian retail sales fall less than forecast in September – Not a big uniform reaction in Loonie pairs, likely due to its mixed nature and the overall risk sentiment leaning positive after better-than-expected sentiment data from the U.S. was released
