A new month is already underway. It’s therefore time to take a look at how both Variants of the Happy Hunter fared during the third month of the forward test.
I’ll also be giving you a sneak peak of how both Variants would have fared if Version 5.0 has already been implemented.
Anyhow, here are the topics we’ll be covering today.
- This Month’s Final Results (click to jump to this part)
- This Month’s Verdict (click to jump to this part)
- Going Forward (click to jump to this part)
And if you need to look at the trade details, you can find them by clicking on the links below:
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Apr. 2-6)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Apr. 9-13)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Apr. 16-20)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Apr. 23-27)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (April 30 – May 4)
Okay, time for the actual evaluation!
This Month’s Final Results
April was a bad month for both Variants of the Happy Hunter Trading System, with the Trailing Variant getting the worst of it since it was down by 1.71% for the month.
The Fixed TP Variant, meanwhile, somehow managed to close out the month with a measly 0.44% gain, which is rather depressing since the Variant reached a high water mark of +4.28% at some point.
This Month’s Verdict
Okay, time to give the verdict. And as usual, I’ll be grading both Variants based on the goals I laid down for the system when I first laid down my plans in My 2018 Trading Resolution way back in January.
And as a refresher, here are my main goals.
- My peak-to-trough drawdown must not exceed 20%
- My reward-to-risk ratio must be at 1:1 or better
- I must open at least one new trade per day
- No losing year (Easy Mode)
- No losing month (Normal Mode)
And here are my bonus goals (some are obvious jokes).
- A win rate of 50% or better
- No losing week (Hard Mode)
- No losing day (Harder Than Hard Mode )
- No losing hour (This Is A Joke Mode)
- No losing minute (Holy Grail Mode)
- No losing second (Delusional Fantasy Mode)
Once again, do take note that monthly growth targets are not listed in my goals.
Anyhow, both variants did not come exceed the 20% drawdown threshold, so both variants clear that goal easily enough. In fact, both Variants didn’t even come close to reaching the 10% “panic level”.
As for the second goal, the one with regard to the reward-to-risk ratio, that’s not really applicable since the Trailing Variant has no set TP while the Fixed TP Variant has a reward-to-risk ratio that is inherently less than 1:1 because of the relatively large 12-pip spread.
But on the flip side, both Variants did have win rates above 50%, so they met one of my bonus goals to have a win rate that’s above 50%.
There was also at least one trade per day in April, to we can easily check the third goal off our list.
As for the fourth goals, that’s still in progress and we won’t know until next year, but both system are still in the green for the year so far, so we will probably meet this goal.
As for the fifth goal to have a winning month, the Fixed TP Variant managed to somehow scrape by, but the Trailing Variant obviously failed to meet that one.
Overall, the Fixed TP Variant is still meeting my goals, despite the poor performance in April. The Trailing Variant, meanwhile, failed to meet my critical goal of having a winning month. It’s still too early to scrap the Trailing Variant, though, so I’ll let it continue with the forward test.
All versions of the Happy Hunter Trading System have inherently poor reward-to-risk ratios.
However, that didn’t really matter too much because the ATRH back in February and March was usually close to the historical average, which allowed the system’s high win rate to offset the low reward-to-risk ratio, giving us profitable months back then.
April, however, was a bit different since the ATRH for THE ENTIRE MONTH was below the historical average.
Seriously, the highest ATRH in April was 30 pips, which is 3 pips shy of the historical average. That’s already the highest reading, mind you.
More often than not, the ATRH was usually between 26 and 27 pips, which is very low. And remember, our TP and SL levels depend on the ATRH but the fixed 12-pip spread remains the same.
In other words, the smaller the ATRH, the bigger of a cost burden the 12-pip spread becomes, which caused the reward-to-risk ratio to deteriorate further.
Anyhow, Version 5.0 is meant to address this main flaw. And while I’m not done testing yet, and I don’t have a set timeline on when I can roll Version 5.0 out, here’s how both Variants would have fared under Version 5.0.
Pretty good, yeah? I haven’t yet finalized the rules for Version 5.0, though, since I’m also tweaking the entry rules so the actual results may be better or worse than what you see here.
Also, some trade offs were made. This can be seen in Version 5.0’s lower win rate. Version 5.0 has a reward-to-risk ratio that’s slightly better than one, though, so as long as the win rate is consistently above 50%, we can expect to make money over time.
Okay, that’s enough for today. It’s back to the daily updates tomorrow. And as always, I enjoy your feedback. So if you have any questions, or if you just want to say “hi” then don’t be shy and write a comment down below!