Greetings, fellow Happy Hunters! A new trading week will soon begin, so it’s time to take stock of how the two Variants of the Happy Hunter Price Action Trading System fared this past week.
And below are the usual topics that we’ll be covering in today’s update:
- Must-Read For New Readers (click to jump to this part)
- The Fixed TP Variant’s Trade Details (click to jump to this part)
- The Trailing Variant’s Trade Details (click to jump this part)
- This Week’s Performance (click to jump to this part)
If you’re a regular reader, then you may wanna use the relevant jump links above to go directly to the actual review.But if you’re a new reader, then I insist that you read up on that part.
By the way, if you need to check out how the system fared during the previous weeks, you can do that by click on the relevant link below.
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Apr. 2-6)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Apr. 9-13)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Apr. 16-20)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Apr. 23-27)
Must-Read For New Readers
If you’re a first-time reader who stumbled across this write-up for some unknown reason, and you have no idea what this is all about, then just know that I crafted a purely mechanical trading system, pursuant to My 2018 Trading Resolution.
If that piques your interest and if you may wanna know more, then click on the links below to read up on the rules of the system.
- The Happy Hunter Price Action System 4.0 (Fixed TP Variant)
- The Happy Hunter Price Action System 4.0 (Trailing Variant)
However, let me just give these statements/disclaimers:
Firstly, I make no claim to the profitability of this system (I’m forward testing it after all), so if you use the system to trade real money without doing your own tests, that’s on you, whether you lose money or get lucky and make money
Secondly, there’s no central exchange for the forex market, so there may be discrepancies in our data feed, and it’s highly probable that I may have a valid signal based on my charts where none exist on yours (and vice versa)
With that out of the way, it’s time to finally discuss how the week went.
Below you’ll find charts of each trading day of the week. And if you’re wondering what the numbers on the charts are about, they refer to the trade #, based on the chronological order when the signal was generated, not necessarily when the trade was opened or closed. And the details of each trade are contained in the table after the charts. Just scroll down.
The Fixed TP Variant’s Trade Details
The Trailing Variant’s Trade Details
This Week’s Performance
There was a downtrend that started on Tuesday and is still somewhat intact as of Friday.
And while both Variants were able to generate trades in the direction of the trend, the choppy intraday price action meant that a lot of countertrend trades were also generated.
Moreover, the choppy intraday price action also meant that some trades that were in the right direction were stopped out, which is quite unfortunate.
Both Variants of the Happy Hunter Trading System therefore had another tough week, which resulted in a net loss of 1.13% for the Fixed TP Variant while the Trailing Variant is down by 1.28% for week.
It’s worth noting that the Fixed TP Variant actually generated more winning trades (17 full wins, 4 trailed wins) than losing trades (14 full losses, 3 partial losses).
However, the Fixed TP Variant had a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.72 reward for every 1 risk this past week, which is rather low. And the high win rate was just not high enough to offset the poor reward-to-risk ratio.
One of the main reasons why the reward-to-risk ratio is rather poor is that we assume a 12-pip spread in every trade, which is a bit difficult to overcome, especially for a day-trading system that shoots for small gains like the Happy Hunter Price Action System.
And to drive home the point that spread has a very large impact on a system’s performance, this is how the system would have fared in a (fantasy) zero-spread environment.
Moving on, the other major reason why the Fixed TP Variant’s reward-to-risk ratio is very poor is the fact that ATRH has been persistently abnormally low.
If ATRH is within the historical average, then the Fixed TP Variant’s reward-to-risk ratio would be closer to 0.95 reward for very 1 risk, which is still poor, but is high enough for the system’s high win rate to yield profits over time.
But as mentioned earlier, the Fixed TP Variant’s reward-to-risk ratio this past week (and the few weeks before) is just 0.72 reward for every 1 risk, so the high win rate just couldn’t cut it.
Anyhow, I mentioned a few days ago that I’m working on some tweaks to address this. And while I’m not yet done testing the tweaks, this is how the two Variants would have fared under the new rules that I’ll be rolling out soon.
As usual, we take spread into account for each and every trade so both Variants still didn’t do too well, but at least they did better than they would have under the old rules.
But if you want to see how both Variants would have fared in a (fantasy) zero-spread environment, then here ya go.
Okay, that’s all I’ve got for today! And as always, I enjoy your feedback. So if you have any questions, or if you see a possible error in my work somewhere, or if you just want to say “hi” then don’t be shy and write a comment down below!