A new month is already well underway. So, how did the two Variants of the Happy Hunter fare in October?
Regular readers probably already know that both Variants had a really good run in October, but go ahead and click on the relevant jump links below for the deets.
- This Month’s Final Results (click to jump to this part)
- This Month’s Verdict (click to jump to this part)
By the way, if you need to look at the trade details, you can find them by clicking on the relevant links below:
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Oct. 1-5)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Oct. 8-12)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Oct. 15-19)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Oct. 22-26)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Oct. 29 – Nov. 2)
Okay, time for the actual evaluation!
This Month’s Final Results
This Month’s Verdict
If July was the worst ever month for the Happy Hunter Trading System, then October is the best ever month since both Variants of the (very) Happy Hunter Trading System had yet another very good run.
To be more specific, the Fixed TP Variant closed out the month with a very solid 6.91% in gains, beating the previous high of 5.39%, which was recorded back in February.
The Trailing Variant, meanwhile, captured an astounding 25.02% in gains, which is double that of the 12.67% recorded in August.
The gains captured in October also mean that both Variants are now printing very impressive numbers for the entire forward testing period, with the Fixed TP Variant up by 21.68% after nine months, while the Trailing Variant is now up by 46.02%.
And remember, we assume a fixed 12-pip spread for each and every trade.
As to why and how the Trailing Variant was able to very significantly outperform the Fixed TP Variant, that’s because of the elevated volatility levels in October, given that the average daily range in October was 189 pips, which is the highest reading for the whole forward-testing period.
And to give that some context, the average daily range for the whole testing period is around 155 pips. And to contrast, the average daily range in July (when the system had a really rough time) is only around 130 pips.
However, what really made October special were the steady, multi-day trends. And the 750+ pip uptrend that lasted from late October 2 until October 5 is particularly noteworthy.
In fact, GBP/NZD’s price action in October can be characterized as a bullish surge followed by a slow and steady downtrend, as you can see below.
There were periods of sideways price action, and the system naturally suffered losses during those times, but those periods were only relatively brief, so the system quickly recovered (and then some).
By the way, if you’re wondering how the system would have fared if we lived in a fantasy, zero-spread world, then here ya go!
Anyhow, enough of that. It’s time to give the actual verdict. And as a refresher, here are the main goals I had for the system when I laid down my plans in My 2018 Trading Resolution way back in January.
- My peak-to-trough drawdown must not exceed 20%
- My reward-to-risk ratio must be at 1:1 or better
- I must open at least one new trade per day
- No losing year (Easy Mode)
- No losing month (Normal Mode)
And here are my bonus goals (some are obvious jokes).
- A win rate of 50% or better
- No losing week (Hard Mode)
- No losing day (Harder Than Hard Mode )
- No losing hour (This Is A Joke Mode)
- No losing minute (Holy Grail Mode)
- No losing second (Delusional Fantasy Mode)
As usual, let me just highlight that monthly profit targets are not listed in my goals since the system is still in the forward-testing phase.
Okay, time to give the verdict.
Both variants did not exceed the 20% drawdown threshold in October. In fact, they didn’t even come close to touching the 10% “panic level” so I can check that off my list of goals.
Also as usual, I’ll just skip the goal to have a reward-to-risk ratio of 1:1 or better since that’s not really applicable.
However, it’s worth pointing out that both Variants have a win rate above 50%, so they’re meeting one of my bonus goals. However, it’s worth pointing out that both Variants already invalidated that goal way back in July since the system went into a losing streak back then and didn’t recover until the following month.
Next, there was at least one trade per day in October, so we can easily check that off our list.
As for the fourth goal, that’s still in progress and we won’t know until next year. However, it’s very likely that both Variants will meet this goal. After all, the Fixed TP Variant is already up by 21.87%, while the Trailing Variant is up by 46.21%.
And for the fifth goal to have a winning month (each month, every month), well, the Trailing Variant already invalidated that goal back in April, with the Fixed TP Variant following suit a month later.
Overall, both Variants are still meeting my critical goals, except for my goal to have a winning month every month, of course.
Both Variants are also printing very impressive numbers for the whole forward testing period. But again, let me just reiterate that I don’t have profit targets for both Variants.
Okay, that’s enough for today. It’s back to the daily updates tomorrow. And as always, I enjoy your feedback. So if you have any questions, or if you just want to say “hi” then don’t be shy and write a comment down below!