It’s already January of the new year, so Happy New Year to all my readers!
And since a new year (and month) is already underway, that also means that December is finally over, and here’s how GBP/NZD’s price action played out on the last day of December.
And here are the final trade details. Oh, do note that trade # 111 should technically still be open on the Trailing Variant, but let’s just assume that it’s already closed out at current price levels.
And since the final results are finally in, it’s time for another monthly evaluation. So, how did the two Variants of the Happy Hunter fare in December?
Well, if you wanna know, then go ahead and click on the relevant jump links below for the deets (or just scroll down).
- This Month’s Final Results (click to jump to this part)
- This Month’s Verdict (click to jump to this part)
By the way, if you need to look at the trade details, you can find them by clicking on the relevant links below:
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Dec. 3 – 7)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Dec. 10 – 14)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Dec. 17 – 21)
- Week In Review At The Happy Hunter’s Lodge (Dec. 24 – 28)
Okay, time for the actual evaluation!
This Month’s Final Results
This Month’s Verdict
Both Variants of the (very) Happy Hunter Trading System had another good run this past month, with the Fixed TP Variant up by a solid 4.38% for the month and the Trailing up by 5.70%.
Those results still pale in comparison to the system’s stellar performance back in October, but hey, profits are profits.
And again, do keep in mind that each and every trade assumes a fixed 12-pip spread.
And thanks to the gains harvested in December, both Variants are now printing very impressive numbers for the entire forward testing period, with the Fixed TP Variant now up by 27.39% after 11 months, while the Trailing Variant is now up by a whopping 54.87%.
And let me just remind you all again that each and every trade assumes a fixed 12-pip spread.
But if you’re wondering how the system would have fared if we lived in a fantasy, zero-spread environment, then here ya go.
GBP/NZD’s price action in December can be characterized as partly a continuation of the downtrend that started in October, partly a consolidation as the pair bottomed out, and partly a correction (and potential reversal) of the downtrend.
Looking at the 4-hour chart above, one gets an impression that trading conditions in December were poorer compared to trading conditions back in November.
However, the reality is that trading conditions in December were actually similar but better.
You see, the average daily range in December was 198 pips, which is the same as in November. However, November’s average daily range is elevated because of the 490-pip downtrend on November 15.
If that one day is excluded, then the average daily range for November drops to just 184 pips.
In contrast, the major outlier in December was the 411-pip downtrend on December 10.
If that day is excluded, then the average daily range for December drops to just 187 pips. But that’s still higher compared to November’s 184 pips.
And if you’re statistically literate, then another way to present it is that the standard deviation for the daily range in December is 80 pips, while November’s is 84 pips.
In other words and in simpler terms, the average daily volatility in December was slightly more consistently higher compared to November.
And consistently higher daily volatility means a higher chance for hitting TP. And this shows in the fact that the system’s win rate in December came in at 52.25%, which is higher compared to November’s win rate of 50% flat.
As for profit potential, they were similar in December and November since the average lot size used in both months was 0.11.
However, intraday price action in December was also relatively better since there were more instances of clear and steady intraday trends, which allowed the Trailing Variant to capture large chunks of those trends.
In particular, the 350-pip uptrend on Dec. 12, the 440-pip uptrend on Dec. 19-20, and the 240-pip uptrend on Dec. 31 are worth highlighting.
There was also that 411-pip drop on Dec. 10, but that one doesn’t count since the system wasn’t able to open trades in the direction of the trend. Worse, a couple of counter-trend trades were triggered, which resulted in full losses.
Anyhow, another reason why intraday price action in December was better is that when GBP/NZD traded sideways, it tended to do so in tight ranges, which allowed the system to “ride it out” until a trend forms.
You can see this in the charts above. Just take note of trades # 71, 72, 109, and 110.
In contrast, this is how price action played out when GBP/NZD traded sideways back in November.
Very messy, yeah? And thanks to that very choppy price action back in November, many trades were closed out with partial or full losses, even though the trend eventually went their way.
Anyhow, enough chitchat. It’s time for the actual evaluation! And as a refresher, here are the main goals I had for the system when I laid down my plans in My 2018 Trading Resolution way back in January.
- My peak-to-trough drawdown must not exceed 20%
- My reward-to-risk ratio must be at 1:1 or better
- I must open at least one new trade per day
- No losing year (Easy Mode)
- No losing month (Normal Mode)
And here are my bonus goals (some are obvious jokes).
- A win rate of 50% or better
- No losing week (Hard Mode)
- No losing day (Harder Than Hard Mode )
- No losing hour (This Is A Joke Mode)
- No losing minute (Holy Grail Mode)
- No losing second (Delusional Fantasy Mode)
And as always, let me just highlight that monthly profit targets are not listed in my goals since the system is still in the forward-testing phase.
Okay, time to give the verdict.
As usual, both Variants did not exceed the 20% monthly drawdown threshold, so I can check that off my list of goals. Heck, it’s even worth noting that both Variants have never reached the 10% “panic level”. Well, the Trailing Variant did almost breach the 10% “panic level” way back on July. Almost, but didn’t, which is great.
Moving on, we’ll just skip (as usual) the goal to have a reward-to-risk ratio of 1:1 or better since that’s not really applicable, given that the Trailing Variant has no set TP while the Fixed TP Variant has a reward-to-risk ratio that is inherently less than 1:1 because of the relatively large 12-pip spread.
However, the system’s win rate in December was 52.25%, they at least met my bonus goal of having a “win rate of 50% or better.”
Next, there was at least one trade per day in November, so let’s quickly check the third goal off our list.
As for the fourth goal, there’s still one month left before the one-year forward testing phase technically ends, but I’m planning to end the forward testing phase already. And besides it’s already apparent that both Variants will meet this goal.
And for the fifth goal to have a winning month (each month, every month), well, let me just repeat what I wrote last month, which is that the Trailing Variant already messed up on that goal way back in April, while the Fixed TP Variant invalidated that goal back in May.
Overall, both Variants have been meeting my critical goals , with the exception of my goal to have a winning month, each and every month.
Okay, that’s enough for now. And as mentioned earlier, I’m finally ending the forward testing phase as of today. I’ll have more to say on that in a later post.
Anyhow, I enjoy your feedback. So if you have any questions, or if you just want to say “hi” then don’t be shy and write a comment down below!