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The Fed is publishing its meeting minutes this week.

What can wee expect from FOMC members in the foreseeable future?

Here are potential catalysts to watch if you’re trading the dollar this week:

FOMC’s meeting minutes (Aug 19, 7:00 pm GMT)

  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members kept their policies steady in late July
  • Though no changes were made, markets will look to the minutes see if some members are pushing for more agressive stimulus responses
  • Remember that Chairman Powell recently shared that the future of the economy depends on policies “taken at all levels of government

Lower tier releases

  • NY manufacturing index (Aug 17, 1:30 pm GMT) to dip from 17.2 to 16.0
  • Housing starts and building permits (Aug 18, 1:30 pm GMT) expected to print higher numbers than the previous month
  • Philly Fed manufacturing index (Aug 20, 1:30 pm GMT) to ease from 24.1 to 20.0
  • Initial jobless claims (Aug 20, 1:30 pm GMT) to ease further to 890K (from 963K last week)
  • Markit manufacturing PMI (Aug 21, 2:45 pm GMT) seen improving from 50.9 to 52.0
  • Markit services PMI expected to tick higher from 50.0 to 51.7
  • Existing home sales (Aug 21, 3:00 pm GMT) to jump from 4.72M to 5.2M?

Overall dollar sentiment

  • As last week’s price action showed us, dollar traders worry about more than economic reports
  • This week, concerns over the next batch of stimulus will continue to affect USD’s intraweek trends
  • The longer the Congress stays in a stalemate over the next stimulus deal, the more markets will depend on the Fed for support and price in uncertainty over the dollar’s value

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging USD’s “overbought” conditions against NZD and JPY on the daily time frame
  • The indicator considers USD/CAD as “oversold”
  • USD/CHF may soon reach the oversold territory
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Daily SMAs still point to the dollar seeing short and long-term downtrends against most of its counterparts
  • Watch out for retracement opportunities on USD/JPY
  • The dollar may soon find bullish pressure against Kiwi
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • USD was most volatile against NZD, AUD, EUR, and CHF in the last seven days
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for August 10 – 14!