After a choppy and mixed week, the U.S. dollar closed out Friday as a net loser. U.S. economic updates were arguably net positive this week, but its likely traders were concerned with the failure to see another stimulus package from Congress, as well as the rising pace of new COVID-19 cases and deaths in the U.S.
United States Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
Fed’s Evans says another coronavirus aid package ‘incredibly important’
Choppy but net positive session for the Greenback, possibly on U.S. stimulus package hopes (Mnuchin is open to restarting virus relief talks: ‘We’re prepared to put more money on the table’) and/or the positive jobs updates (The number of U.S. job openings increased to 5.9M on the last business day of June – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Tuesday:
USD was under pressure during the London session, possibly on positive global risk sentiment sparked by positive coronavirus related news (Russia has registered the world’s first coronavirus vaccine, J&J eyes one billion doses of potential COVID-19 shot in 2021), but turned higher during the U.S. session. This bounce correlated with news of U.S. producer prices beating expectations (0.6% m/m in July vs. 0.3% expectations).
U.S. bankruptcies on track for 10-year high with more than 100 consumer companies already filing
Trump Says He’s ‘Seriously’ Mulling a Capital Gains Tax Cut
U.S. governors question cost of Trump COVID-19 aid plans, urge talks to continue
U.S. small business optimism falls in July to 98.8: NFIB
In virus talks, Pelosi holds firm while Mnuchin wants a deal
Fed’s Barkin says economy could suffer relapse without more Washington stimulus
Coronavirus: Florida reports single-day record number of new COVID-19 deaths
Wednesday:
U.S. Mortgage applications rose 2% for the week; 22% higher than the same week one year ago.
Mnuchin declines to say if U.S. COVID-19 aid deal can be reached
Fed’s Rosengren says slowdown in economic activity likely to continue
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.6% m/m in July
US budget deficit climbs to record USD 2.81T, annual deficit may get doubled than all-time high
Dallas Fed’s Kaplan: U.S. recovery “muted” by virus resurgence
Fed policymakers say economic growth will be muted until virus contained
Coronavirus surging among children, teenagers in California
Broad turn lower in the dollar starting in the London session. There doesn’t seem to be a direct catalysts, but risk sentiment flipped positive as equities, which was likely influenced by risk sentiment moving positive as equities and commodities moved higher while bond yields fell on the session. Could it been a positive reaction to the continued rebound in European industrial production data?
Thursday:
Relief talks stumble again as Trump asserts a deal is ‘not going to happen’
U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 963,000, first time below 1 million since mid-March
U.S. import prices rose for third straight month in July
Florida adds 6,236 coronavirus cases as death toll passes 8,900
Friday:
Congress fails to reach stimulus deal, leaving tens of millions of Americans desperate for relief
U.S. industrial production rose 3% in July, marking third-straight monthly increase
U.S. Retail sales rose 1.2% in July vs. the Dow Jones estimate of 2.3%.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index edged up to a reading of 72.8 from 72.5 in July
U.S. second-quarter productivity rises at its fastest pace in 11 years
New CDC guidance says Covid-19 rates in children are ‘steadily increasing’