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A risk-friendly environment made pips rain for yen bears last week. Can the bulls force retracements or reversals this time?
Here are the potential catalysts you need to watch out for:
Lower tier economic releases
- Japan’s data don’t usually power intraweek trends, they can cause intraday retracements that can serve as good entries for day or swing trades
- Japan’s economy shrinks at a record pace as pandemic hits spending
- Final industrial production (Aug 17, 5:30 am GMT) expected to maintain its 2.7% reading
- Reuters Tankan index (Aug 17, 11:00 pm GMT) to improve from -44.0 to -32.0?
- Core machinery orders (Aug 19, 12:50 am GMT) seen jumping from 1.7% to 2.5%
- Trade deficit (Aug 19, 12:50 am GMT) expected to narrow down from 268.8B to 120B in July
- National core CPI (Aug 21, 12:30 am GMT) could tick higher from 0.0% to 0.2%
- Markit’s manufacturing PMI (Aug 21, 1:30 am GMT) expected at 49.0 after July’s 45.2 reading
Market risk sentiment
- As we saw in last week’s trading, significant hits or misses that might affect global risk sentiment can also affect JPY’s intraweek trends
- Meeting minutes by the FOMC, ECB, and RBA can give clues on the short-term plans and sentiments of major central bankers
- This week’s PMI reports from the European region and the U.S. will hint at the pace of global economic recovery
- Coronavirus updates (number of cases, lockdown plans, stimulus hints, and negotiations) will continue to influence overall risk-taking and the demand for the safe-haven yen
Technical snapshot
- Daily Keltner Channels point to the yen being “oversold” against the euro
- JPY may soon see oversold conditions against CHF, GBP, AUD, and CAD

- SMAs are showing JPY’s short and long-term bearish trends against EUR, AUD, CHF, and GBP
- Watch for a potential reversal on NZD/JPY and a retracement opportunity on USD/JPY

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- The yen weakened the most against the Euro, Loonie, and franc in the last seven days

Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for August 10 – 14!