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After a mixed trading week, will the RBA’s meeting minutes encourage one-directional trends for the Aussie?

Check out the economic reports and themes you need to pay attention to if you’re trading the comdoll this week:

RBA’s meeting minutes (Aug 18, 2:30 am GMT)

  • Earlier this month, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) members kept their interest rates unchanged at 0.25% and were upbeat over signs of economic recovery
  • While they said that a negative interest rate was “unlikely,” members haven’t ruled out adjusting their stimulus efforts
  • Read up on their sentiments on launching further stimulus, negative interest rates, and the Aussie’s current levels against its counterparts

Lower-tier economic data

  • MI leading index (Aug 19, 1:30 am GMT) last printed a 0.4% uptick after a 0.2% increase in June
  • Markit’s manufacturing PMI (Aug 20, 12:00 am GMT) could dip from 54.0 to 53.5 in August
  • Markit’s services PMI also seen weakening for the month
  • People’s Bank of China (PBoC)’s closely watched 1-year loan prime rate is expected to be left unchanged at 3.85%

Market risk appetite

  • Like in the previous week, coronavirus cases in key Australian regions and what they mean for the government’s lockdown plans will continue to affect AUD’s intraweek trends
  • Coronavirus-related updates from other major economies (number of cases, lockdown prospects, vaccine updates, and stimulus announcements) can influence the demand for high-yielding currencies like the Aussie
  • Closely watched releases like the FOMC’s meeting minutes and PMIs from the European region and the U.S. can also affect overall risk sentiment and AUD’s prices

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers the Aussie “oversold” against the Loonie
  • AUD may soon see oversold conditions against EUR and CHF
  • AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD are “overbought” on the daily time frame
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Daily 50 and 200 SMAs are reflecting AUD’s bullish trends against most of its counterparts
  • Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities against the European currencies (EUR, CHF, GBP)
AUD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • AUD was most volatile against USD, CAD, JPY, and GBP in the last seven days
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for August 10 – 14!