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What’s better than NFP week?

Any week where we get to hear more from the Fed!

Here are potential economic themes to watch if you’re trading the dollar this week:

Lower tier reports

  • While they may not lead to new intraweek trends, these closely watched reports can inspire intraday price swings for the dollar
  • Pending home sales (June 29, 2:00 pm GMT) to bounce from -21.8% to 18.0%?
  • ISM manufacturing PMI (July 1, 2:00 pm GMT) expected to improve from 43.1 to 48.6
  • EIA’s crude oil inventories (July 1, 2:30 pm GMT) last printed at 1.4M (from 1.2M)
  • Factory orders (July 2, 2:00 pm GMT) could jump by 8.0% after 13.0% drop in March

NFP-related releases

  • Challenger job cuts (July 1, 11:30 am GMT) to ease from 397K to 180K
  • Weekly initial jobless claims (July 2, 12:30 pm GMT) could see another 1.3M out of work
  • Non-farm payrolls (July 2, 12:30 pm GMT) to add another 2.9M in June?
  • Unemployment rate expected to ease from 13.3% to 12.3%
  • Average hourly earnings (y/y) could slip from 6.7% to 5.0%

Powell and Mnuchin’s testimonies (June 30, 4:30 pm GMT)

  • FOMC Chairman Powell will testify with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the House Financial Services Committee
  • They’re expected to confirm their commitment to providing monetary and fiscal stimulus
  • Watch out for concrete signs of more stimulus on the way

Market risk sentiment

  • Traders will look to coronavirus cases in the U.S. and around the world for cues on the pace of reopening economies and global economic recovery
  • Updates on the U.S.’ relationships with its major trading partners can also influence demand for the dollar
  • News on a vaccine or fresh stimulus could weigh on safe havens like the dollar

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging the dollar’s “overbought” conditions against the pound and Loonie
  • USD is also heading in the “overbought” condition against Kiwi and the euro
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • SMAs point to the dollar’s bearish trends against its fellow safe havens
  • USD is on short and long-term bullish trends against the pound
  • Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/USD
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • The dollar was most volatile against the comdolls and the pound in the last 30 days
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for June 22 – 26!