What’s better than NFP week?
Any week where we get to hear more from the Fed!
Here are potential economic themes to watch if you’re trading the dollar this week:
Lower tier reports
- While they may not lead to new intraweek trends, these closely watched reports can inspire intraday price swings for the dollar
- Pending home sales (June 29, 2:00 pm GMT) to bounce from -21.8% to 18.0%?
- ISM manufacturing PMI (July 1, 2:00 pm GMT) expected to improve from 43.1 to 48.6
- EIA’s crude oil inventories (July 1, 2:30 pm GMT) last printed at 1.4M (from 1.2M)
- Factory orders (July 2, 2:00 pm GMT) could jump by 8.0% after 13.0% drop in March
- Challenger job cuts (July 1, 11:30 am GMT) to ease from 397K to 180K
- Weekly initial jobless claims (July 2, 12:30 pm GMT) could see another 1.3M out of work
- Non-farm payrolls (July 2, 12:30 pm GMT) to add another 2.9M in June?
- Unemployment rate expected to ease from 13.3% to 12.3%
- Average hourly earnings (y/y) could slip from 6.7% to 5.0%
Powell and Mnuchin’s testimonies (June 30, 4:30 pm GMT)
- FOMC Chairman Powell will testify with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the House Financial Services Committee
- They’re expected to confirm their commitment to providing monetary and fiscal stimulus
- Watch out for concrete signs of more stimulus on the way
Market risk sentiment
- Traders will look to coronavirus cases in the U.S. and around the world for cues on the pace of reopening economies and global economic recovery
- Updates on the U.S.’ relationships with its major trading partners can also influence demand for the dollar
- News on a vaccine or fresh stimulus could weigh on safe havens like the dollar
- Stochastic is flagging the dollar’s “overbought” conditions against the pound and Loonie
- USD is also heading in the “overbought” condition against Kiwi and the euro
- SMAs point to the dollar’s bearish trends against its fellow safe havens
- USD is on short and long-term bullish trends against the pound
- Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/USD
- The dollar was most volatile against the comdolls and the pound in the last 30 days