USD Weekly Forecast – Powell, Mnuchin, and NFP Take Center Stage

What’s better than NFP week?

Any week where we get to hear more from the Fed!

Here are potential economic themes to watch if you’re trading the dollar this week:

Lower tier reports

While they may not lead to new intraweek trends, these closely watched reports can inspire intraday price swings for the dollar
Pending home sales (June 29, 2:00 pm GMT) to bounce from -21.8% to 18.0%?
ISM manufacturing PMI (July 1, 2:00 pm GMT) expected to improve from 43.1 to 48.6
EIA’s crude oil inventories (July 1, 2:30 pm GMT) last printed at 1.4M (from 1.2M)
Factory orders (July 2, 2:00 pm GMT) could jump by 8.0% after 13.0% drop in March

Challenger job cuts (July 1, 11:30 am GMT) to ease from 397K to 180K
Weekly initial jobless claims (July 2, 12:30 pm GMT) could see another 1.3M out of work
Non-farm payrolls (July 2, 12:30 pm GMT) to add another 2.9M in June?
Unemployment rate expected to ease from 13.3% to 12.3%
Average hourly earnings (y/y) could slip from 6.7% to 5.0%

FOMC Chairman Powell will testify with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the House Financial Services Committee
They’re expected to confirm their commitment to providing monetary and fiscal stimulus
Watch out for concrete signs of more stimulus on the way

Traders will look to coronavirus cases in the U.S. and around the world for cues on the pace of reopening economies and global economic recovery
Updates on the U.S.’ relationships with its major trading partners can also influence demand for the dollar
News on a vaccine or fresh stimulus could weigh on safe havens like the dollar

Stochastic is flagging the dollar’s “overbought” conditions against the pound and Loonie
USD is also heading in the “overbought” condition against Kiwi and the euro

SMAs point to the dollar’s bearish trends against its fellow safe havens
USD is on short and long-term bullish trends against the pound
Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/USD

The dollar was most volatile against the comdolls and the pound in the last 30 days