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Trade and retail numbers are due this week!

Will numbers improve from March to April? More importantly, how will the Aussie react?

I’ve listed the potential catalysts that you should pay attention to!

Lower-tier reports

  • AIG’s manufacturing index (June 30, 10:30 pm GMT) to jump from 41.6 to 44.0 in June
  • Building approvals (July 1, 1:30 am GMT) could plummet by 8.0%
  • Trade surplus (July 2, 1:30 am GMT) seen widening from 8.8B AUD to 9.1B AUD
  • Retail sales (July 3, 1:30 am GMT) expected to rocket by 16.3% after 17.7% drop in March

Overall risk sentiment

  • A lot of Australian exports go to China, so market-moving data can influence AUD’s trading
  • China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs (June 30, 1:00 am GMT) is expected to slip a few points from May’s numbers
  • Caixin’s manufacturing (July 1, 1:45 am GMT) is seen at 50.3 (from 50.7) while the services PMI (July 3, 1:45 am GMT) could dip from 55.0 to 53.6
  • Coronavirus cases and the prospect of lockdown measures will affect high-yielding currencies like the Aussie
  • Talks of stimulus can also influence overall risk taking
  • Like in last week’s trading, updates on the U.S.-China trade relations will also affect Aussie’s price action

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging Aussie’s “overbought” conditions against the pound
  • Watch out for the Aussie hitting overbought status against the Loonie
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • AUD is trading above short and long-term SMAs against GBP, CAD, and NZD
  • Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities against USD, JPY, CHF, and EUR on the daily time frames
AUD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • Aussie was most volatile against the safe havens and the European currencies in the last month. Will it see similar moves in July?
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for June 22 – 26!