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Not even market risk aversion pushed the yen higher last week.

Can the bulls make pips rain this week?

Here are market themes that could influence the yen’s price action:

Lower-tier releases

  • Retail sales printed a 12.3% drop in May (from -13.9% in April)
  • Unemployment rate (June 29, 11:30 pm GMT) seen to inch up from 2.6% to 2.9% in May
  • Industrial production (June 29, 11:50 pm GMT) could improve from -9.8% to -6.0%
  • Quarterly Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices (June 30, 11:50 pm GMT) will show sharp contractions in Q1 2020
  • Consumer confidence (July 1, 5:00 am GMT) seen at 30.0 from 24.0 in June

Market risk appetite

  • Trade relations between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, will affect appetite for safe havens like the yen
  • Coronavirus cases and the possibility of locking down or slowdown of re-opening economies can influence appetite for risk
  • Stimulus updates can affect the yen’s intraweek trends
  • Dollar bulls and bears will trade USD/JPY at the release of U.S. NFP-related reports, so watch out for any spillover into other yen crosses

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers the yen “overbought” against the pound and Loonie on the daily time frame
  • Watch out for JPY hitting the same conditions against NZD and EUR
JPY Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Short and long-term EMAs highlight the yen’s bearish trends against the Aussie, Kiwi, euro, and franc
  • The yen is generally bullish against the pound, Loonie, and U.S. dollar
JPY Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • The yen saw the most volatility against the comdolls and pound in the last month
JPY Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for June 22 – 26!