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It’s NFP week, yo! What are traders expecting from the event and what other catalysts can move the dollar this week?

Here’s a list:

PMI reports

  • Markit’s final manufacturing PMI (Apr 1, 1:45 pm GMT) expected to maintain its initial 49.2 reading
  • ISM’s manufacturing PMI (Apr 1, 2:00 pm GMT) seen to dip from 50.1 to 49.3 in March
  • Markit’s final services PMI (Apr 3, 1:45 pm GMT) could inch higher from 39.1 to 39.2
  • ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI (Apr 3, 2:00 pm GMT) could plummet from 57.3 to 44.0 in March

Lower-tier reports that can cause intraday spikes

  • Chicago PMI (Mar 31, 1:45 pm GMT) to drop from 49.0 to 44.0?
  • CB consumer confidence (Mar 31, 2:00 pm GMT) seen at 115.0 after a 130.7 reading in Feb
  • Factory orders (Apr 2, 2:00 pm GMT) expected to post 0.7% decline after 0.5% dip
  • Durable goods orders (Apr 2, 2:00 pm GMT) unexpectedly jumped in February

NFP-related reports

  • ADP’s non-farm employment (Apr 1, 12:15 pm GMT) expected to reflect 153,000 decrease vs. 183,000 gain in February
  • Challenger job cuts (Apr 2, 11:30 am GMT) could post its second monthly decrease in March
  • Closely watched weekly initial jobless claims (Apr 2, 12:30 pm GMT) seen printing another 3M initial claimants
  • Headline NFP (Apr 3, 12:30 pm GMT) could see a net decrease of 81,000 (from 273,000 in February)
  • Unemployment rate could jump from 3.5% to 3.8%
  • Average hourly earnings expected to dip from 0.3% to 0.2%

USD demand

  • COVID-19 updates and overall market sentiment can still affect overall demand for safe haven USD
  • U.S.’ weak labor market and the Fed’s unli-QE can reduce USD’s safe haven appeal in case of market risk aversion

Technical snapshot

  • USD has seen the most gains against AUD, CAD, and NZD in the last 30 days
  • USD has lost pips against EUR and CHF in the last month

  • USD was most volatile against GBP, AUD, and NZD in the last 7 days

  • EUR/USD is 0.08% away from trading above its short AND long-term SMAs
  • AUD, NZD, and CAD are trading above their 5 SMAs but still below their 20, 50, and 200 SMAs
  • GBP/USD is trading above its short-term SMAs but below its long-term SMAs. Watch out for retracements or a reversal
  • USD/CHF is still firmly in bearish mode


Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for March 23 – 27!