Improved market sentiment dragged the yen lower last week. Which catalysts can change its direction this week?

Mid-tier economic releases

  • Unemployment rate (Mar 30, 11:30 pm GMT) could remain at 2.4% in February
  • First reading of industrial production (Mar 30, 11:50 pm GMT) to dip from -2.3% to -4.9%?
  • Retail sales (Mar 30, 11:50 pm GMT) could drop by another 1.5% (from -0.4%) in February
  • Housing starts (Mar 31, 5:00 am GMT) seen at -14.7% from -10.1% in January
  • Quarterly Tankan manufacturing index (Mar 31, 11:50 pm GMT) expected to drop from 0 to -10
  • Quarterly Tankan non-manufacturing index (Mar 31, 11:50 pm GMT) could print down from 20 to 3
  • Final manufacturing PMI (Apr 1, 12:30 am GMT) could maintain its 44.8 reading

Market risk sentiment

  • COVID-19 updates and global economic stimulus can continue to affect demand for the safe haven yen
  • USD demand can also factor in. If dollar bulls can’t sustain last week’s trend, then we could see higher-yielding bets lose pips against safe havens like USD and JPY
  • Closely watched economic reports like Uncle Sam’s NFP numbers and PMI reports from Australia, U.S., China, and the Euro Zone can affect the yen’s intraday trends
  • Earnings reports from major businesses and their potential misses can also factor in the overall market sentiment

Technical snapshot

  • JPY has gained the most pips against the comdolls (AUD, CAD, and NZD) in the last 30 days
  • JPY has only lost pips to CHF in the last month

  • Stochastic is flagging JPY’s “oversold” conditions against EUR and CHF

  • JPY has seen the most volatility against AUD, GBP, and NZD in the last week


Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for March 23 – 27!