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Not a lot of top-tier releases scheduled from the U.S. this week. That doesn’t mean the dollar’s price action will be a snoozer though!

Here are market events that can rock the dollar’s prices:

Durable goods orders (Nov. 4, 3:00 pm GMT)

  • Durable goods fell by 1.1% in September after 0.3% gain in August
  • Boeing issues, GM strike, and lower demand for transportation equipment contributed to the weakness
  • Factory orders, another gauge of manufacturing activity, will be printed at the same time and is expected to drop by 0.5% after dipping by 0.1% in August

Trade balance (Nov. 5, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • U.S. trade deficit widened from $54.0B to $54.9B in August
  • Exports inched 0.2% higher while imports popped up by 0.5%
  • U.S. dollar’s reaction was eclipsed by traders’ reaction to NFP report printed on the same day

ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Nov. 5, 3:00 pm GMT)

  • Upside surprise in Friday’s NFP report was overshadowed by (lack of) expectations of further easing from the Fed and weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI
  • Analysts see ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI at 53.4 (vs. 52.6 in September)
  • A weak reading could support the manufacturing PMI’s concerns and further weaken the dollar

FOMC members’ speeches

  • Powell’s hints of pausing rate cuts and rejection of potential tightening weighed on the dollar last week
  • Charles Evans will speak in New York on Nov 6 at 1:00 pm GMT. He voted for the October rate hike but also recently said that policy “is in a good place right now.”
  • John Williams will participate in a discussion in New York on Nov 6 at 2:30 pm GMT. He voted in favor of the October rate hike and shared that repo purchases have had the “desired effect of reducing strains in markets.”
  • Lael Brainard will deliver closing remarks in San Francisco on Nov 8 at 1:30 pm GMT. She’s in favor of the Fed growing its balance sheet again to avoid banking system “frictions.”

Technical Snapshot

  • Stochastic flags NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD as OVERBOUGHT on the daily time frame
  • USD Stochastic Profile from MarketMilk™
    USD Stochastic Profile from MarketMilk™

  • NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY are all trading above their 50 SMAs but below their 200 SMAs
USD Daily Chart SMAs from MarketMilk™
USD Daily Chart SMAs from MarketMilk™
  • Watch EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD for opportunities to short (in case their downtrends remain solid) or reversals (in case prices cross above the 200 SMAs)

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for Oct. 28 – Nov. 1!