GBP Weekly Forecast (Nov. 4 – 8)

With the Brexit deadline now extended to early next year, the spotlight could turn back to U.K. economic events for now. Here’s what’s up!

U.K. services PMI (Nov. 5, 9:30 am GMT)

• Uptick from 49.5 to 49.6 projected for October
• Slightly slower pace of industry contraction expected
• Actual figures came in weaker than expected in three out of the last five months
• Index has been on the decline in the past three months
• Services sector accounts for majority of overall economic performance

BOE Inflation Report (Nov. 7, 12:00 pm GMT)

• Latest set of growth and inflation forecasts for the next two years
• August Inflation Report featured softer estimates for GDP and CPI
• Brexit-related adjustments expected, positive outlook on extension?

BOE monetary policy decision & minutes (Nov. 7, 12:00 pm GMT)

• No change to 0.75% interest rate expected
• No change to 435 billion GBP asset purchases expected
• Analysts foresee unanimous vote to keep monetary policy unchanged
• More upbeat tone on Brexit extension to lift GBP?

BOE Governor Carney’s testimony (Nov. 7, 12:30 pm GMT)

• Press conference on central bank’s Inflation Report release
• Mentioned that U.K. data has been volatile and that global economic slowdown is underway in an earlier speech
• Potential change in rhetoric to incorporate Brexit developments

Technical Snapshot

• GBP/CAD and GBP/USD most bearish among pound pairs based on stochastic
• EUR/GBP and GBP/NZD approaching oversold levels

• EUR/GBP approaching bullish territory, according to long-term moving averages
• GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD deep in bearish region

If you’re thinking of taking any trades with GBP pairs, do take note of their average daily volatility based on the last seven days of price action:

Missed last week’s price action? Read the GBP price recap for Oct. 28 – Nov. 1!