AUD Weekly Forecast (Nov. 4 – 8)

Positive Australian data and global risk sentiment made tons of bulls happy last week. Can they maintain their momentum with this week’s catalysts?

RBA’s statement (Nov.5, 3:30 am GMT)

• RBA cut its rates by 25bps in October, its third this year
• RBA Gov. Lowe hinted of further interest rate cuts, calls for government action
• AUD dropped to its intraday lows after the statement and Lowe’s presser
• RBA expected to maintain its rates at 0.75%
• Watch out for RBA’s quarterly monetary policy statement printed on Nov 8, 12:30 am GMT

Trade balance (Nov. 7, 12:30 am GMT)

• Australia’s trade surplus narrowed down from A$7.25B to A$5.93B in August, its smallest since April
• Exports dropped by 3.0% while imports fell by 0.4%
• Trade surplus is expected to print at A$5.10B in September

China’s top-tier releases

• China’s trade balance (Nov 8, Asian session) to reflect $40.0B surplus vs $39.65B seen in September
• Exports could dip by 4.5% (from -3.2%) while imports could drop by another -8.0% (from -8.5%)
• Annualized CPI to maintain its 3.0% growth in October
• Annualized producer prices could slow down from -1.2% to -1.5% in October

Technical snapshot

• AUD/USD is the most bullish while EUR/AUD is the most bearish in short-term trends



• AUD/JPY is the most bullish and EUR/AUD is the most bearish among the majors based on the 50 SMA (Daily)
• GBP/AUD is the most bullish and AUD/CAD is the most bearish among the majors based on the 200 SMA (Daily)



• Look out for retracement opportunities on GBP/AUD and AUD/CAD throughout the week

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for Oct. 28 – Nov. 1!