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Positive Australian data and global risk sentiment made tons of bulls happy last week. Can they maintain their momentum with this week’s catalysts?

RBA’s statement (Nov.5, 3:30 am GMT)

  • RBA cut its rates by 25bps in October, its third this year
  • RBA Gov. Lowe hinted of further interest rate cuts, calls for government action
  • AUD dropped to its intraday lows after the statement and Lowe’s presser
  • RBA expected to maintain its rates at 0.75%
  • Watch out for RBA’s quarterly monetary policy statement printed on Nov 8, 12:30 am GMT

Trade balance (Nov. 7, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Australia’s trade surplus narrowed down from A$7.25B to A$5.93B in August, its smallest since April
  • Exports dropped by 3.0% while imports fell by 0.4%
  • Trade surplus is expected to print at A$5.10B in September

China’s top-tier releases

  • China’s trade balance (Nov 8, Asian session) to reflect $40.0B surplus vs $39.65B seen in September
  • Exports could dip by 4.5% (from -3.2%) while imports could drop by another -8.0% (from -8.5%)
  • Annualized CPI to maintain its 3.0% growth in October
  • Annualized producer prices could slow down from -1.2% to -1.5% in October

Technical snapshot

  • AUD/USD is the most bullish while EUR/AUD is the most bearish in short-term trends
  • AUD Daily Chart SMAs from MarketMilk™
    AUD Daily Chart SMAs from MarketMilk™
  • AUD/JPY is the most bullish and EUR/AUD is the most bearish among the majors based on the 50 SMA (Daily)
  • GBP/AUD is the most bullish and AUD/CAD is the most bearish among the majors based on the 200 SMA (Daily)
  • AUD Daily Chart MAs from MarketMilk™
    AUD Daily Chart MAs from MarketMilk™
  • Look out for retracement opportunities on GBP/AUD and AUD/CAD throughout the week

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for Oct. 28 – Nov. 1!