NZD Weekly Forecast (Nov. 4 – 8)

Positive risk sentiment boosted the Kiwi against its peers last week. Here’s what you need to know about this week’s catalysts!

Quarterly labor market numbers (Nov 5, 9:45 pm GMT)

• Unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 11-year low of 3.9% in Q2 2019
• NZD traded higher after the jobless rate surprise
• Unemployment rate to rise to 4.1% in Q3 2019?
• Employment expected to dip from 0.8% to 0.2% in Q3 2019
• Labor cost index expected to slow down from 0.8% to 0.6%

Countercurrency event risks

• Central bank events (RBA and BOE decisions, ECB Gov Lagarde’s speech)
• Top-tier events in Australia (retail sales, trade balance) and China (trade balance, CPI)

Market risk appetite factors

• Will the U.S. dollar extend its losses across the board?
• U.S. – China trade deal updates. Looks like officials are already talking signing details.
• Overall performance of Euro Zone PMIs

Technical Snapshot

• NZD/CAD, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, and NZD/CHF are on short-term uptrends but are below their 200 SMAs.
• AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD, and EUR/NZD are on short-term downtrends but are above their 200 SMAs.



• NZD/CAD, NZD/JPY, and NZD/USD saw the most volatility in the last 7 days.



• Watch out for potential pullbacks against the lower-yielding bets as well as CAD and GBP.

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for Oct. 28 – Nov. 1!