It’s NFP week, yo! Are you ready to trade the dollar? Here are catalysts that might affect its price action!
A report by Markit printed last week showed the U.S. manufacturing industry hitting a five-month high in August, as machinery and primary metals production popped up.
Will ISM’s manufacturing data support the optimism? Tomorrow at 2:00 pm GMT analysts expect to see the index slip back up from 49.1 to an expansionary 50.1 reading.
Meanwhile, a factory orders release scheduled on October 3 at 2:00 pm GMT is expected to print a 0.5% decrease after clocking in a 1.4% uptick in July.
Manufacturing makes up around 11% of the U.S. economy, so you can bet that traders will watch this week’s numbers closely to see if they need to worry about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on the industry and the economy.
The start of a brand spankin’ new trading month means we get to speculate on Uncle Sam’s labor market numbers!
In case you weren’t around last month, then you should know that the economy had added a net of 130,000 jobs in August, lower than the 159,000 increase in July and the expected 158,000 uptick.
Dollar bears hadn’t attacked on the news, however, because average hourly earnings had also increased by 0.4% when it was only at 0.3% in July. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7% as many had expected.
This week analysts expect the headline NFP to print a 140,000 increase for the month of September. Average earnings is expected to slow down from 0.4% to 0.2%, however, while the unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.7%.
Not willing to wait until Friday for the NFP numbers? You can get clues from labor market-related releases such as the ADP report (Oct 2, 12:15 pm GMT), Challenger job cuts (Oct 3, 11:30 am GMT), and the employment components of ISM’s manufacturing (Oct 1, 2:00 pm GMT) and non-manufacturing (Oct 3, 2:00 pm GMT) PMIs.
FOMC member speeches
Over the next couple of days voting members from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are scheduled to make speeches.
Here’s a cheat sheet to help set your expectations:
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for September 23 – 27!