Another mixed week for the U.S. dollar as counter currency influences and geopolitical headlines were the likely main drivers for the intra-week ups and downs. Overall, the Greenback ended as a net winner against the other major currencies.
United States Headlines and Economic data
- Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 51.0 (50.3 in August). 5-month high
- Fed policymakers say lower rates are helping
- Fed’s Daly says rate cuts are helping to offset headwinds
- Fed’s Bullard: U.S.-China trade relations probably had to come to a head
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rises Above Zero
- The Greenback saw a quick round of strength early in the day, likely sparked by global risk aversion sentiment on a combination of headlines pointing to a weakening global economy (Korea Exports Dent Optimism Over Global Tech Demand Recovery) and on the possibility of a longer time horizon for the Saudi oil facilities to get back on line.
- Fed’s Bullard says the end of an era of free trade is imperiling the U.S. economy
- Mnuchin appears to surprise Trump about request to cancel China visit to US farms
- U.S. house prices rise in June, but momentum slowing
- The Richmond Fed composite index dropped from 1 in August to −9 in September
- The Conference Board Consumer U.S. Confidence Index decreased in September to 125.1, down from 134.2 in August
- Philiadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey increases to 9.5 in Sept. vs. 7.5 in August
- The combination of negative U.S. economic updates and the geopolitical headlines (Mnuchin appears to surprise Trump about request to cancel China visit to US farms, Donald Trump attacks China on trade and urges restraint on Hong Kong protests in speech to UN General Assembly) were arguably the influences that had the Dollar moving lower during the U.S. trading session.
- Pelosi launches formal Trump impeachment inquiry
- Evans says two rate cuts have Fed ‘well-positioned’ at this point
- U.S. House Democrats plunge into Trump impeachment inquiry
- U.S. mortgage applications post biggest drop since late 2016: MBA
- Sales of new single‐family houses in Aug. 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713K, 7.1% above Jul. 2019
- The U.S. dollar bounced higher during the U.S. trading session, possibly on a shift away from the extreme negative geopolitical headlines from early in the week, and/or possibly on a broad bid for safe haven assets given the wide array of geopolitical risk/headlines. It’s really tough to tell.
- Second-quarter U.S. GDP left at 2%, slower economic growth seen persisting
- Whistleblower complaint is out: It alleges Trump abused power to influence 2020 election
- Dallas Fed’s Kaplan says global economy ‘fragile’ but U.S. will ‘skate through’
- The United States’ international trade deficit was $72.8B in August, up $0.4B from $72.5B in July
- Wholesale inventories for August, were estimated at $681.9B, up 0.4% from July 2019
- U.S. pending home sales rise more than expected in August
- Weak U.S. business investment, tepid profits cast shadow on economy
- Durable goods get boost from Pentagon in August, but business investment still weak
- Personal income increased 0.4% in August after increasing 0.1% in July
- U.S. Consumer sentiment improves but still shows ‘slow erosion’
- Fed’s Harker says central bank should ‘hold firm’ on rates
- White House deliberates block on all US investments in China – this surprise announcement shook up global risk sentiment as the idea weakened the prospects of a trade deal between the U.S. and China. The Greenback bounced against the comdolls and Sterling on the news, while taking a quick hit against the low-yielders/safe havens.