Who’s up for trading the yen this week? If you are, then you better check out which catalysts can affect its price action!
A report printed earlier today showed retail activity growing by 2.0% from a year ago in July. This is better than the 0.7% increase that traders had expected and the 2.0% dip that we saw in June.
We’ll know more about the state of Japan’s consumers when we see the unemployment rate report scheduled on today at 11:40 pm GMT. Analysts expect the rate to tick higher from 2.2% to 2.3% even as they see the job-to-applicant ratio maintain its 1.59 rate.
Meanwhile, the consumer confidence report on October 2 at 5:00 am GMT should give us clues on the households’ future spending patterns. Market players see it printing at 38.2, higher than the 37.1 index reading we saw in August.
The combo of weak inflation and threats of policy action from Bank of Japan (BOJ) members had some traders pricing in further easing from the central bank.
If this week’s consumer-related reports point to weaker consumer activity (and lower inflation), then we could see the yen lose some pips against its major counterparts.
Quarterly Tankan reports (Sept 30, 11:30 pm GMT)
Traders like watching the BOJ’s quarterly Tankan surveys because they hint at future manufacturing and non-manufacturing trends in the country.
The previous release showed mixed results with the manufacturing index hitting a three-year low while the non-manufacturing sector improved a bit from a reading of 21 to 23 in Q2 2019.
This week analysts see the manufacturing index slip further from 7 to 2 in Q3 2019, while the non-manufacturing counterpart is also expected to print lower from 23 to 21 in the same time period.
Market risk sentiment
What’s a trading week without trading the yen as a safe haven?
This week the biggest event risks include the anything that’s related to the U.S. NFP report; RBA’s policy announcement, a bunch of final PMIs from the euro zone, and a couple of speeches from FOMC members.
And then there are the U.S.-China trade updates. While China is on a banking holiday for most of the week, that won’t stop officials from either side from sharing intentions and potential moves ahead of the October 10 -11 meetings.
Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for September 23 – 27!