Market bulls dominated Kiwi’s charts for most of last week. Can they extend their gains with this week’s catalysts?
NZIER business confidence (Sept 30, 9:00 pm GMT)
Back in July, New Zealand’s Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) showed us that New Zealand’s companies are at their most downbeat since the financial crisis.
Business confidence not only fell to its lowest since March 2009, but 31% also expect a deterioration of economic conditions down the road. Meanwhile, 4% of businesses reported a decline in trading activity, which pointed to softer economic growth in the second half of 2019.
Will we see a more pessimistic report in Q3 2019? Central bank members have often cited business confidence in their speeches and evaluations, so you can bet pips that they will be watching this week’s release closely. That means you should, too!
Countercurrency moves and market risk sentiment
We know from last week’s price action that Kiwi can make huge moves by reacting to other currencies’ catalysts.This week look out for the big non-farm payrolls (NFP) report from the U.S., which could translate into a risk on/off play depending on the strength or weakness of the data.
Australia’s RBA is also scheduled to print its monetary policy statement this week. Market players expect the central bank to cut its interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. This could drive traders into buying Kiwi especially after Adrian Orr had hinted against “unconventional” monetary policy.
Meanwhile, check your newswires for clues on the upcoming trade-related meetings between the U.S. and China. Word around is that China is sending its top trade negotiator to the table on October 10 – 11. Meanwhile, the U.S. might be considering blocking Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges. Yipes!
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for September 23 – 27!