NZD Weekly Forecast (Nov. 11-15)

The RBNZ is up this week! What can you expect from the central bank and how can the Kiwi react?

Here’s a list of events that could influence the Kiwi’s price action:

RBNZ policy decision (Nov 13, 1:00 am GMT)

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its cash rates steady at 1.00% in September after cutting rates by 50 bps in August
RBNZ expected rates to be “low for longer,” hinted at scope for further monetary and fiscal support
Analysts are divided, but many expect a 25 bps rate cut this week after last week’s poor labor market data and U.S.-China trade uncertainty
A quarterly policy report will also be printed, together with a quarterly presser by Governor Orr
Watch out for hints of further easing in 2020, as slowing global growth, weak domestic data, and U.S.-China trade uncertainty affect RBNZ’s mandates.

The index maintained its 48.4 reading in September after rising from 48.1 in August
RBNZ pays close attention to business sentiment so you should too.

Last week’s price action showed NZD’s susceptibility to U.S.-China trade updates
Can the U.S. partially remove tariffs on China’s products and get a “phase one” deal signed before the December 15 tariff deadline?
Australia’s labor market data (Nov 14, 12:30 am GMT) could affect NZD’s intraday trends
Powell’s testimonies on Wednesday and Thursday could hint at the Fed’s near-term plans and affect sentiment for higher-yielding currencies

NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF, NZD/CAD, and NZD/EUR are all below their 200 SMAs but are above their 50SMAs. Watch for potential retracements or longer-term reversals

NZD SMAs MarketMilk

GBP/NZD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, and NZD/CHF saw the highest volatility among the major NZD pairs for the past 30 days.

NZD 30 Day Volatility from MarketMilk

GBP/NZD still has room for volatility compared to the other three volatile NZD pairs

NZD 7 Day Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for November 4 – 8!