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The RBNZ is up this week! What can you expect from the central bank and how can the Kiwi react?
Here’s a list of events that could influence the Kiwi’s price action:
RBNZ policy decision (Nov 13, 1:00 am GMT)
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its cash rates steady at 1.00% in September after cutting rates by 50 bps in August
- RBNZ expected rates to be “low for longer,” hinted at scope for further monetary and fiscal support
- Analysts are divided, but many expect a 25 bps rate cut this week after last week’s poor labor market data and U.S.-China trade uncertainty
- A quarterly policy report will also be printed, together with a quarterly presser by Governor Orr
- Watch out for hints of further easing in 2020, as slowing global growth, weak domestic data, and U.S.-China trade uncertainty affect RBNZ’s mandates.
Business NZ manufacturing PMI (Nov 14, 9:30 pm GMT)
- The index maintained its 48.4 reading in September after rising from 48.1 in August
- RBNZ pays close attention to business sentiment so you should too.
Market sentiment
- Last week’s price action showed NZD’s susceptibility to U.S.-China trade updates
- Can the U.S. partially remove tariffs on China’s products and get a “phase one” deal signed before the December 15 tariff deadline?
- Australia’s labor market data (Nov 14, 12:30 am GMT) could affect NZD’s intraday trends
- Powell’s testimonies on Wednesday and Thursday could hint at the Fed’s near-term plans and affect sentiment for higher-yielding currencies
Technical Snapshot
- NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF, NZD/CAD, and NZD/EUR are all below their 200 SMAs but are above their 50SMAs. Watch for potential retracements or longer-term reversals
- GBP/NZD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, and NZD/CHF saw the highest volatility among the major NZD pairs for the past 30 days.
- GBP/NZD still has room for volatility compared to the other three volatile NZD pairs
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for November 4 – 8!