Conflicting market sentiment pushed the yen to a mixed week against its counterparts last week. Will we see one-directional trends for the safe haven this week?
Here’s a list of potential catalysts that could move the yen’s prices:
Preliminary GDP (Nov 13, 11:50 pm GMT)
- The economy grew by 1.3% from a year ago in Q2 2019, faster than 0.4% increase expected but slower than a 2.2% gain seen in Q1 2019
- Capital expenditure, private consumption, and domestic demand alleviated concerns over the impact of slowing global economy and increased trade conflict
- Quarterly growth could slow down from 0.3% to 0.2% in Q3 2019
- The annualized version could dip from 1.3% to 0.8%
Lower-tier reports
- Preliminary machine tool orders (Nov 12, 6:00 am GMT), which has been on a decline since November 2018, is expected to fall by another 30% or so in October
- Annualized PPI (Nov 12, 11:50 pm GMT) could print at -0.1% after falling by 1.1% in September
- Industrial production (Nov 15, 4:30 am GMT) is likely to maintain its 1.4% initial reading
- Lower-tier data might not influence the yen’s prices for long, but data hits or misses could cause a blip or two that could make or break intraday trades
Overall market sentiment
- If last week’s price action is any clue, U.S.-China trade updates could feature bigly in the yen’s intraweek trends this week
- Can the U.S. remove some tariffs on Chinese products and get a “phase one” deal signed before the next round of tariffs kick in on December 15?
- U.K.’s preliminary GDP (Nov 11, 9:30 am GMT) and labor market data (Nov 12, 9:30 am GMT) could influence risk-taking in the European region
- China’s data dump (Nov 14, Asian session) will give clues on the impact of trade conflict with the U.S.
- Powell’s testimonies on Wednesday and Thursday could hint at the Fed’s near-term plans and affect sentiment for higher-yielding currencies
Technical Snapshot
- JPY is currently making pips rain against ALL of its major counterparts, but is still below longer-term SMAs against USD, CAD, and GBP
- JPY lost pips against USD and AUD and gained the least against CAD last week…
- Interestingly, JPY is strongest against those three currencies today.
- Is JPY just retracing last week’s losses, or are we looking at the most likely candidates for reversals?
Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for November 4 – 8!
