Strong data and positive trade updates boosted the Greenback last week. Can this week’s catalysts extend its rallies?
Here’s a list of market events you should pay attention to:
- The Fed head honcho will talk economy before the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday and House Committee Budget on Thursday. The first day usually triggers more volatility for USD pairs
- Powell is expected to stress a pause in easing after cutting rates thrice this year
- Watch out for Powell’s opinions on a “phase one” deal with China and the Fed’s balance sheet plans
CPI (Nov 13, 1:30 pm GMT)
- Monthly consumer prices were unchanged in September after a 0.1% gain in August, as strong food inflation was offset by lower energy prices
- Annual inflation rate was unchanged at 1.7%, below estimates of 1.8% increase
- Core inflation rate was also flat at its one-year high of 2.4%
- Analysts see monthly CPI gaining by 0.3% in October, while annualized data might remain at 1.7%
- Core CPI could register a 0.2% uptick for the month
PPI (Nov 14, 1:30 pm GMT)
- Producer prices posted its biggest decline in eight months in September
- Luckily for USD, traders stayed away from higher-yielding bets on the back of increased U.S.-China trade tensions
- Headline AND core PPIs could print 0.2% increases in October after falling by 0.3% in September
Retail sales (Nov 15, 1:30 pm GMT)
- Retail trading dipped by 0.3% in September, its biggest drop in seven months, after seeing 0.6% gain in August
- Lower sales of motor vehicle, building materials, hobbies, and online purchases dragged the figures lower
- The disappointing report, together with doubts that China would purchase more U.S. agricultural products, dragged USD lower
- Market players see headline retail sales come in at 0.1% in October
- Core retail sales could print a 0.4% gain after slipping by 0.1% in September
U.S.-China trade updates
- Markets will see if the Trump administration can soften its stance over rolling back (even partially) its tariffs on Chinese products
- Many believe that a rollback of existing tariffs is key in signing a “phase one” trade deal with China
- The next round of tariffs is scheduled to kick in on December 15
- Both Stochastic and Williams %R are flagging USD as “overbought” against EUR, GBP, CHF, and CAD
- USD is bullish against EUR and CHF across short and long-term SMAs
- USD/CAD is slowly turning bullish. Watch for a possible trip above the 200 SMA!
- USD is still bearish against GBP in the longer-time frames, but is seeing green shoots in the shorter time frames. Is GBP/USD ready for a longer-term reversal?
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for Oct. 28 – Nov. 1!