USD Weekly Forecast (Nov. 11-15)

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Strong data and positive trade updates boosted the Greenback last week. Can this week’s catalysts extend its rallies?

Here’s a list of market events you should pay attention to:

Powell’s testimonies

The Fed head honcho will talk economy before the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday and House Committee Budget on Thursday. The first day usually triggers more volatility for USD pairs
Powell is expected to stress a pause in easing after cutting rates thrice this year
Watch out for Powell’s opinions on a “phase one” deal with China and the Fed’s balance sheet plans

Monthly consumer prices were unchanged in September after a 0.1% gain in August, as strong food inflation was offset by lower energy prices
Annual inflation rate was unchanged at 1.7%, below estimates of 1.8% increase
Core inflation rate was also flat at its one-year high of 2.4%
Analysts see monthly CPI gaining by 0.3% in October, while annualized data might remain at 1.7%
Core CPI could register a 0.2% uptick for the month

Producer prices posted its biggest decline in eight months in September
Luckily for USD, traders stayed away from higher-yielding bets on the back of increased U.S.-China trade tensions
Headline AND core PPIs could print 0.2% increases in October after falling by 0.3% in September

Retail trading dipped by 0.3% in September, its biggest drop in seven months, after seeing 0.6% gain in August
Lower sales of motor vehicle, building materials, hobbies, and online purchases dragged the figures lower
The disappointing report, together with doubts that China would purchase more U.S. agricultural products, dragged USD lower
Market players see headline retail sales come in at 0.1% in October
Core retail sales could print a 0.4% gain after slipping by 0.1% in September

Markets will see if the Trump administration can soften its stance over rolling back (even partially) its tariffs on Chinese products
Many believe that a rollback of existing tariffs is key in signing a “phase one” trade deal with China
The next round of tariffs is scheduled to kick in on December 15

Both Stochastic and Williams %R are flagging USD as “overbought” against EUR, GBP, CHF, and CAD

USD is bullish against EUR and CHF across short and long-term SMAs
USD/CAD is slowly turning bullish. Watch for a possible trip above the 200 SMA!
USD is still bearish against GBP in the longer-time frames, but is seeing green shoots in the shorter time frames. Is GBP/USD ready for a longer-term reversal?

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for Oct. 28 – Nov. 1!