Price action for the euro and franc turned out mixed as a bag of M&Ms when ECB rhetoric and dollar direction came in play last week. Here’s what’s coming up next.
ECB head Draghi’s speech (Jun. 12, 8:30 am GMT)
Last week’s ECB statement turned out slightly less dovish than expected as the central bank shared its bias to keep rates on hold until the first half of 2020, in contrast to expectations of a possible cut sometime in the year.
During the presser, Governor Draghi highlighted better-than-expected data for Q1 but warned of headwinds to the economy. In particular, he mentioned “geopolitical uncertainties, rising protectionism threats and vulnerabilities in emerging markets” weighing on sentiment.
This week, Draghi is due to deliver opening remarks at the ECB conference in Frankfurt and might share these same points. Additional focus on threats to growth and sentiment could keep a lid on the euro’s gains.
SNB rate decision (Jun. 13, 7:30 am GMT)
Brace yourselves, franc traders! SNB Chairperson Jordan and his fellow policymakers are scheduled to announce their monetary policy decision during the latter part of the week.
No actual changes to interest rates are expected, but it’s worth noting that a handful of SNB officials have been talking about the overvalued franc these days. The Swiss central bank is no stranger to jawboning and actual forex intervention, so better stay on your toes in case stronger rhetoric comes up.
Overall market sentiment
As in the previous weeks, risk sentiment has been a major driving force for both the shared currency and the franc. These currencies had been able to take advantage of risk-off flows and anti-dollar movements, so we might see the same behavior in the days ahead.
Note that the U.S. changed its mind about tariffs on Mexico, so trade uncertainties may have eased somewhat. Then again, the latest U.S. NFP report has been disappointing enough to spur Fed rate cut expectations, keeping traders wary of the dollar. In turn, this could mean preference for other lower-yielding bets if risk aversion stays in play.
Missed last week’s price action? Read the EUR & CHF price review for June 3-7!