After the RBA’s drama last week, which catalysts can move the Aussie this week? Here’s a short list!
NAB business confidence (June 11, 2:30 am GMT)
In last month’s release we found out that business conditions, confidence, and forward orders fell below their averages in April.
The index slipped four points to +3 for the month, with the employment index clocking in the steepest decline among the indicators.
NAB noted that the bounce in March was short-lived, and that attention must now be paid to employment as weaknesses in activity and outlook may now be flowing through the labour market.
Labor market reports (June 13, 2:30 am GMT)
Changing labour market trends isn’t the only reason why you should pay attention to NAB’s employment index! See, it’s also a leading indicator for a much closely watched report on tap.
Later this week we’ll see if Australia’s labor market numbers will finally reflect the weak spots in other bits of the economy.
Recall that the report printed a net addition of 28,400 jobs in April, which was higher than the 14,000 gain that analysts had expected and the 27,661 addition seen in March.
Unemployment rate inched up to an 8-month high of 5.2%, though, partly due participation rate rising by 0.2% to 65.8%.
This week, analysts are expecting to see an additional 13,500 net jobs created for the month of May. The unemployment rate is expected to maintain its 5.2% rate, though, so it’s likely that the net employment change (and maybe even wage growth) will get more attention than the jobless rate.
China’s data releases
For newbies out there, know that the Aussie tends to respond more to China’s data releases than the other currencies because (a) Australia’s exports depends a lot on China’s demand and (b) the Chinese yuan isn’t as widely available for forex trading as the Australian dollar.
This is why you should also pay attention to major reports such as the trade balance (June 10), CPI (June 12), and data dump (June 14) happening during the Asian session this week.
With the U.S. implementing stiffer tariffs on Chinese goods and banning U.S. companies from doing business with some of their Chinese counterparts, traders will be on the lookout for signs that the world’s second-largest economy is slowing down and that it might spill over to the smaller economies around the globe.
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for June 3 – 7!