USD Weekly Review (June 3 – 7)

The Greenback falls on the week as expectations of a rate cut rose to combat the potential economic slowdown due to US trade wars on several fronts.

United States Headlines and Economic data

Monday:

• U.S. Fed’s Daly says patient on rates, eyeing trade talks
• ISM manufacturing index fell to 52.1 for May, compared to expectations for 53
• Fed’s Bullard says a rate cut may be ‘warranted soon’ – Bullard’s comments are likely the catalyst for the drop in USD in the late U.S. trading session.

Tuesday:

• Powell says the Fed will ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’
• US factory orders fall; shipments post largest drop in two years
• Vice Chair Clarida: If economy slows, Fed will implement policy to keep it in a ‘good place’
• Evans says Fed is not getting in the way of a strong U.S. economy
• Mexico’s Pres. López Obrador expects deal with U.S. over immigration

Wednesday:

• Mnuchin to meet with Chinese central banker at G-20 gathering
• Fed’s Kaplan says too soon to support interest-rate cuts
• Private sector employment increased by 27K jobs from April to May according to the ADP National Employment Report – Big drop in the Greenback off of this numbers as it is the first sign of a slowing employment picture.

Thursday:

• The US trade deficit fell in April just before the increase in tensions with China
• Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019
• Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector decreased 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2019
• Fed’s Williams sees headwinds from tariffs, open mind on rates

Friday:

• Jobs Report Is Weak, With Gain of 75,000; Unemployment Rate Still 3.6% – this event spiked the odds of rate cuts from the Federal reserve on the idea they will head off a potential slowdown to the economy due to the U.S.’ trade issues.
• Trump says there’s a ‘good chance’ that Mexico averts tariffs with deal that includes purchase of US farm goods