Trade Ideas

Japan’s $35B intervention erased the FOMC-driven dollar rally last week. This week, NFP, the RBA’s live hike decision, and Hormuz escalation risk define every major trade.

The FOMC’s most divided vote in thirty years, WTI breaking $100, and a confirmed $35B Japanese intervention combined to test every scenario the framework had built — and reveal one it hadn’t.

With the European Central Bank refusing to pre-commit to any rate path, the euro looks stuck in “paralysed policymaker” mode. What does this mean for the euro?

WTI crude oil has climbed back above the $100 per barrel mark and seems to have gotten fresh tailwinds from UAE’s OPEC exit. How high can it go?

USD/JPY is keeping its head below the 160.00 barrier now that the BOJ announced a “hawkish hold” decision. Can the upcoming FOMC decision still spur a big move?

The BOJ disappointed, WTI is knocking on $100, and Iran blinked first. Here’s where the original scenarios stand heading into Wednesday’s FOMC gauntlet.

New Zealand’s Q1 CPI beat forecasts and repriced RBNZ expectations – here’s how our NZD watchlist setups held up.

GBP/USD has been climbing for weeks, but it’s shaping up to be a slow grind inside a wide range rather than a clear trend.

Gold fell during the week’s worst escalation. Five central banks, a Warsh confirmation vote, US GDP, and stalled Hormuz peace talks define the week ahead.

The safe-haven signal appears broken this week, with yields and dollar strength pulling gold steadily lower instead.

EUR/USD is attempting to reverse course from an earlier long-term downtrend, but geopolitical developments and eurozone flash PMI data pose risks.

Iran refused to negotiate, Vance canceled his flight, and WTI breached the $90.70 regime threshold. Here’s how the scenarios have shifted — and what Wednesday’s deadline means for every asset.

Australia’s jobs figures came in mostly in line with expectations, keeping the unemployment rate steady for March and RBA expectations well-anchored. Here’s our watchlist setup that made the cut.

Cooler inflation could dent RBNZ interest rate hike expectations this year. We’re watching AUD/NZD and NZD/CHF if CPI comes in weak!

New Zealand is gearing up to print its quarterly CPI, and hotter than expected price pressures could stoke expectations for a more hawkish RBNZ. Here’s what I’m looking at on NZD/JPY and EUR/NZD in this scenario.

Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, setting up a pivotal week as Islamabad peace talks, Warsh’s testimony, and US retail sales collide simultaneously.

GBP/USD’s climb looks strong on the surface, but upcoming U.K. GDP data could put the rally at risk. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is under broad pressure from a geopolitical backdrop that could flip quickly.

If the AUD crowd goes mild at the March jobs results, then AUD/USD and GBP/AUD setups could start drawing more attention from traders.

Stronger than expected Australian employment data could further stoke the hawkish RBA narrative, so I’m keeping an eye out for a bounce on AUD/USD and AUD/NZD in this scenario.

Diplomatic progress pushed our Risk-On scenario to 40% probability, but the confirmed April 19 sanctions waiver expiry keeps a supply squeeze on a 96-hour countdown regardless.