Two sessions in, and the week has already delivered a scenario shift that seemed like the lower-probability outcome at Sunday's open. Vice President Vance's Tuesday declaration that US-Iran talks made "a lot of progress" — combined with reports of a second-round meeting possibly as early as Thursday — has pushed the framework meaningfully toward a diplomatic resolution track. Markets have front-run accordingly: WTI broke below the critical $90 level and is now trading near $88.78, DXY has slipped below the 98.50 support flagged in Monday's cheat sheet, and the S&P 500 is within striking distance of its late-January record highs.