Sunday's cheat sheet framework held — and that's not necessarily good news. Sunday's cheat sheet assigned a 35% probability to the risk-off scenario and explicitly flagged that a WTI close above the $90.70 range ceiling would signal spike regime rather than range regime. Tuesday closed with WTI at $91.18. Iran formally refused to attend negotiations in Islamabad. VP Vance canceled his flight. The ceasefire deadline is now Wednesday midnight ET — and there is no negotiating table set. This update covers where each original scenario stands, what the charts are telling us at current levels, and how to think about the remaining catalysts before Friday's close.