Japan's confirmed ~$35 billion intervention didn't just reverse a weekly dollar trade — it rewrote the entire week's narrative in under 24 hours. The FOMC's most divided vote in over three decades had lifted DXY on Wednesday, fully validating the framework's hawkish-hold call. Then Thursday's London session arrived, USD/JPY surged past 160.40, and the Bank of Japan answered. The dollar closed the week as the worst-performing major currency — the precise inverse of where Wednesday's close had left it. That reversal defines how this week's setups must be read.
The Strait of Hormuz remains physically closed. Iran delivered a new proposal to Washington via Pakistani mediators on Friday, but Trump rejected the Islamabad meeting format and diplomacy is at a standstill — weekend reports confirmed Trump is being briefed on expanded military options by US Central Command. The calendar is bookended: Tuesday front-loads the RBA decision alongside ISM Services and JOLTS; Wednesday and Thursday are largely quiet; Friday delivers NFP as the week's binary event.