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About a month ago I talked to you guys about USD/CHF possibly staging a break-and-retest after breaking below a long-term rising trend line.

Well, we definitely can’t deny the downtrend now! USD/CHF is currently finding resistance at the .9800 major psychological level, which happens to be around the mid-channel area on the 4-hour time frame.

USD/CHF 4-hour Forex Chart
USD/CHF 4-hour Forex Chart

Thing is, I don’t think the trade is worth the risk if I enter at the mid-channel level. Instead, I’m looking to jump in somewhere closer to just above this week’s top weekly ATR and .9950 area.

This week’s catalysts could provide the push USD/CHF needs to jump to the .9950 area. The FOMC meeting minutes, for starters, could boost the dollar for a bit if it hints that voting members are in favor or one or two more rate hike this year.

It won’t stop the dollar’s overall downtrend, though. Between the escalating trade tensions with China, concerns of a potential recession, and the Fed getting more pressure from Trump to loosen their monetary policies, it’s unlikely that the dollar will go back to its uptrend against the franc anytime soon.

For now, I’m on a wait and see mode for opportunities to sell USD/CHF. How about you? Think USD/CHF will extend its bearish momentum? What entry and exit levels are you looking at?

Don’t hesitate to share your ideas if you have them!

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