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Hey, guys!

Last week I shared with you a long EUR/USD opportunity after the pair looked like it was bouncing from a broken resistance level.

Well, NFP week didn’t exactly turn out well for the setup. Instead of bouncing, weak data from the euro zone and a strong NFP release dragged EUR/USD back to its descending channel.

Thing is, I haven’t lost my dollar-bearish bias just yet.

For one thing, Powell all but confirmed a July rate cut earlier this week! Apparently, cutting rates (amidst “solid” economic prospects) because you’re worried about other economies’ growth is a thing.

Powell, along with other FOMC members, were so convincing in their dovish speeches that markets mostly ignored yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation report.

So, unless there are other catalysts out there that are more dovish than a “sure” rate cut in July and maybe another one before the year ends, I’m betting on more dollar bearishness, at least against the franc.

It’s not even a stretch to imagine further weakness for USD/CHF.

USD/CHF Daily Forex Chart
USD/CHF Daily Forex Chart

As you can see, the pair just got rejected at the ascending trend line that it broke in late June. In fact, it’s now confined by a descending trend line on the daily chart!

I’m considering risking 0.5% of my account on a short at market prices. Then again, it’s probably better to wait for a bit more bearish momentum before I jump in. Maybe after price dips below the .9850 bottom WATR?

Here’s a plan that I’m brewing:

Short 0.50% at .9830, SL just above the trend line (.9950), and initial profit target at .9700.

I might also add to my position and use a trailing stop instead depending on how USD/CHF reacts to possibly making new lows.

What do you think? Are you also watching this pair?

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Reviewing my 2018 Forex Trades
HLHB Trend-Catcher System 2018 Review

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