Aaaand the numbers are in! How did this trend-catcher fare across three major dollar pairs in 2018? I have the charts!
If this is your first time hearing about this mechanical system, then you might want to check out what the Huck Loves Her Bucks System is all about first.
Basically, I’m catching trends whenever the 5 EMA crosses above or below the 10 EMA on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY’s 1-hour time frames.
Take note that I only risk 0.50% of my account per trade.
A trade is only valid if RSI crosses above or below the 50.00 mark when the signal pops up. And in this version, I’m adding ADX>25 to weed out the fakeouts.
So, how did the HLHB perform this year? I’ve broken down the numbers per pair:
The HLHB started on a weak note with EUR/USD, clocking in a 1.24% loss in Q1. The next two quarters proved to be profitable, though, as win rate improved and the average wins way outpaced average losses.
Unfortunately, the strong momentum wasn’t sustained in Q4 when the 12 valid trades saw a net loss of 0.43%.
Unlike in EUR/USD, the HLHB System didn’t see a negative quarter with Cable. The system saw a net gain of 0.53% in Q1, followed by a nice 1.15% gain in Q2 as one particular trade hit its 400-pip profit target.
Q3 was another strong quarter thanks to a high win rate. Finally, the spike in trades taken in Q4 helped the system gain another 0.55% by the end of the year.
This trend-catcher wasn’t as lucky with USD/JPY.
As you can see, a poor win rate combined with low average wins made for a pretty “meh” performance for the HLHB. Of course, it didn’t help that the dollar barely made significant moves against the yen near the end of the year.
Taken together, we can see that the HLHB Trend-Catcher System gained 4.42% from EUR/USD, 5.37% from GBP/USD, and a cute 0.99% from USD/JPY.
Not as strong as I’d like the numbers to be, but they’re not too horrible either. I’ve noticed that the system tends to hold on to trades for too long.
Maybe it’s time to make some adjustments? I’m thinking of tightening the stop loss to catch more of the directional moves, but I might also use another filter to weed out the fakeouts. Any suggestions?