After a bajillion years, I’ve finally compiled the HLHB’s trade results for the second quarter! Check out the numbers on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.
If you’ve just tuned in, know that the Huck Loves Her Bucks (HLHB) System aims to catch trends by using the 5 and 10 EMAs on the 1-hour charts of major dollar pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.
A trade is only valid if RSI crosses above or below the 50.00 mark when the signal pops up. And in this version, I’m adding ADX > 25 as a parameter to weed out the fakeouts.
Check out a backtest that I did if you want to know more about the version that I’m using!
For now, here’s a breakdown of how the system did in April, May, and June:
EUR/USD yielded the most signals among the three pairs with 19 valid trades in all. More meant more profitable in this case since it’s the only pair where the HLHB actually gained pips – all 9 of them!
The 5-trade losing streak doesn’t look good especially when there’s only one back-to-back win for the pair. Hey, at least the system’s win rate on the pair is better than the previous quarter’s?
The HLHB had the best win rate with GBP/USD at 42%. Unfortunately, the system also tends to go big AND go home with its wins and losses.
By the end of the quarter, the system is down by a net of 75 pips (-0.25%) from all 12 of Cable’s trades. Not too bad considering that there were crazy whipsaws whenever there are Brexit-related headlines in the news wires.
I noticed that while USD/JPY saw tons of legit intraweek trends, the HLHB managed to be on the OTHER side of a lot of them.
One reason is that open positions (and trends) from the previous week rarely predict next week’s trends. Maybe I should consider closing positions by the end of the week like I used to?
Anyhoo, the combo of low win rate, higher average losses than gains, and tons of fakeouts translated to a 270-pip loss (-0.90%) from USD/JPY in three months. Boo.
That’s it for the numbers in this update!
One thing I’ve noticed is that there’s no shortage of strong intraweek trends among the pairs that I’m watching. Unfortunately, most of them were triggered by spiky range breakouts instead of actual crossovers. What’s more, not a lot of them see enough retracements to give this trend-catcher legit chances to jump in.
This, I think, is why there are too few valid signals for the one-hour time frame. This might also be why a lot of the validated signals are actually fakeouts rather than legit trend-catching action.
Got any advice on how I can tweak my parameters to catch more of the sudden intraweek trends? Should I use other indicators? Time frames? Currency pairs?
Any help would be much appreciated!