Hey all! I had some extra time over the past couple of days, so I thought I’d share with you the results of my HLHB System trades in Q1 2019.
If you’ve just tuned in, know that the Huck Loves Her Bucks (HLHB) System aims to catch trends by using the 5 and 10 EMAs on the 1-hour charts of major dollar pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.
A trade is only valid if RSI crosses above or below the 50.00 mark when the signal pops up. And in this version, I’m adding ADX > 25 as a parameter to weed out the fakeouts.
Check out a backtest that I did if you want to know more about the version that I’m using!
For now, here’s a breakdown of how the system did in the first three months of the year:
Eww, a net loss for the quarter! A quick look at my journal reminded me that limited volatility translated to tons of fakeouts for EUR/USD. Heck, the HLHB didn’t even get any winning streak during the quarter!
The low win rate, combined with an average gain that’s not so fantastic against the average loss, contributed to this trend-catcher sustaining a 162-pip (-0.54%) loss from January to March.
For one, the average win is much better against the average loss than what we saw in EUR/USD. A quick peek at my previous updates also told me that GBP/USD saw more open trades get cut off by adjusted stops compared to other pairs which saw their trades cut off by new signals. This suggests that the trend trades had more room to do their thing compared to other pairs.
Looks like Brexit shenanigans worked well for GBP/USD’s intraweek trends! As you can see, the HLHB fared the tiniest bit better on Cable with its 50% winning rate.
In any case, all the volatility led to the HLHB getting a net of 223 pips (+0.74%) from eight winning trades. I’ll take it!
Like in Cable, USD/JPY also got 16 valid trades during the period. It also saw a higher win rate (63%) and a longer winning streak (6) against other major pairs.
Unfortunately, the average win wasn’t as impressive. So while USD/JPY saw better stats against GBP/USD’s, it still only got 212 pips (+0.71%) in the last three months.
So, it looks like the HLHB is off to a shaky start. And I thought I had time to get over the slump! Maybe it’s time to make some tweaks? Anybody got any ideas for catching trends?