Dollar traders are in for a treat with Powell’s testimonies and NFP-related reports keeping volatility alive for the Greenback.
Planning on trading dollar pairs this week?
Not until you know a bit about this week’s potential movers!
- Fed Governor Powell will talk CARES Act with Treasury’s Steven Mnuchin before lawmakers in DC on Tuesday and Wednesday
- We know from last week’s price action that hints of easier policies for longer could extend USD’s downtrend across the board
- Watch out for hints that the Treasury or the Fed would find it harder to get additional funds in 2021
- ISM’s manufacturing PMI (Dec 1, 3:00 pm GMT) to jump from 53.4 to 56.7?
- ADP non-farm employment change (Dec 2, 1:15 pm GMT) seen improving from 365K to 370K in November
- Challenger job cuts (Dec 3, 12:30 pm GMT) could print at 79K (from 80K)
- Initial jobless claims (Dec 3, 1:30 pm GMT) expected at 774K (from last week’s 778K)
- Non-farm payrolls (Dec 4, 1:30 pm GMT) seen at 500K in November after 638K reading in October
- The unemployment rate could dip from 6.9% to 6.8%
- Average hourly earnings expected to remain at 0.1% for the month
Overall dollar demand
- COVID-19 updates (number of cases, lockdown prospects, vaccine results) will continue to factor in the demand for the safe-haven dollar
- Themes like the Brexit negotiations and OPEC’s decision will also factor in the overall risk sentiment
- Any significant friction in the Presidential transition in January could limit the dollar’s gains
- The dollar has hit the Keltner Channel’s “oversold” status against the Kiwi
- USD may soon hit “oversold” conditions against EUR on the daily time frame
- EMAs reflect the dollar short and long-term bearish trends against most of its major counterparts
- USD is seeing short-term demand against the pound
- Like the yen, the dollar was most volatile against the comdolls and the pound in the last month