There’s not a lot going on from New Zealand this week, which means Kiwi traders will likely take their cues from countercurrency price action.
Which catalysts should you pay attention to?
I’ve got a list for ya!
Lower-tier domestic releases
- Final ANZ business outlook revised higher by 9 points, while activity was higher by 4 points in November
- Terms of trade index (Dec 1, 9:45 pm GMT) to drop from +2.5% to -2.8% in Q3
- Building permits (Dec 2, 9:45 pm GMT) seen slipping from 3.6% to 1.2%
- China and Australia are two of New Zealand’s biggest trading partners
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) (Dec 1, 3:30 am GMT) is expected to maintain its current policies in December
- Australia GDP (Dec 2, 12:30 am GMT) could show a 2.4% growth in Q3 2020 after a 7.0% dip in Q2
- China’s official and Caixin PMIs are expected to reflect improvements in the manufacturing and services sectors in November
- NFP-related reports could make or break the dollar’s downtrend this week
Market risk sentiment
- NZD’s overbought conditions across the board will make it easier for the bears to attack in case there’s risk aversion
- Fed Governor Powell will testify before policymakers in DC this week. Watch for the possibility of easier monetary policy or any friction with Treasury that might hint at limited additional stimulus in 2021
- Brexit and U.S. election updates will continue to affect overall risk-taking and the demand for high-yielding currencies like the Kiwi
- Pandemic-related headlines (vaccine, lockdown, stimulus) can also influence market risk sentiment this week
- RSI is reflecting NZD/USD and NZD/CAD’s “overbought” conditions on the daily time frame
- Keltner channels have NZD/USD, NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, and NZD/JPY on its upper bands, which hints at overbought conditions
- EMAs are showing NZD’s short AND long-term bullish trend on the daily time frame
- Kiwi saw the most volatility against the safe-havens and the pound in the last 30 days