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A brand-spankin’ new trading month means another chance to trade an NFP report! What are the markets expecting from this month’s release?

Check out this week’s potential catalysts if you’re trading the dollar in the next few days!

NFP-related reports

  • U.S. economy added 4.8M jobs in June, May reading upgraded to show 2.7M gain
  • Unemployment rate improved from 13.3% to 11.1% vs. 12.4% forecast
  • USD traded the session with mixed results against its major counterparts
  • The ADP report (Aug 5, 12:15 pm GMT) is expected to add another 2.1M jobs (from 2.3M) in July
  • The employment component of ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI (Aug 5, 2:00 pm GMT) is expected to drop from 57.1 to 54.6
  • Challenger job cuts (Aug 6, 11:30 am GMT) seen at 125K in July
  • Weekly initial jobless claims (Aug 6, 12:30 pm GMT) to add another 1.45M claimants?
  • Non-farm payrolls (Aug 7, 12:30 pm GMT) expected to add a net of 2.2M jobs (from 4.8M) in July
  • Unemployment rate to dip from 11.1% to 10.5%
  • Average hourly earnings could slip by another 1.0% (from -1.2%) in July

Lower tier releases

  • ISM’s manufacturing PMI (Aug 3, 2:00 pm GMT) to improve from 52.6 to 53.6 in July
  • Factory orders (Aug 4, 2:00 pm GMT) seen at 6.5% after 8.0% jump in May
  • The trade deficit (Aug 5, 12:30 pm GMT) to tighten from 54.6B to 50.7B as exports outpace imports

Overall dollar demand

  • Coronavirus cases, reopening prospects, vaccine updates, and stimulus headlines can affect how traders react to U.S.’ lagging reports this week
  • U.S.’ economic and geopolitical tensions with China can bring back some of the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven flows
  • Start-of-month risk-taking can exacerbate the low yielding dollar’s recent weaknesses

Technical snapshot

  • RSI considers the dollar “oversold” against EUR and GBP on the daily time frame
  • USD is mostly in neutral territory against NZD, AUD, JPY, and CAD
USD Forex Pairs RSI from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs RSI from MarketMilk
  • Daily time frame SMAs show the dollar’s short and long-term bearish trends against the pound
  • USD may be seeing short-term uptrends against the rest of its major counterparts
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • The dollar was most volatile against AUD, NZD, GBP, and EUR in July
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for July 27 – 31!