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Top-tier reports from New Zealand and its major trading counterparts will keep Kiwi bulls and bears on their toes this week.

Which market themes should you pay attention to?

I’ve got a short list for ya!

Quarterly employment numbers (Aug 4, 10:45 pm GMT)

  • The unemployment rate jumped from 4.0% to 4.2% in Q1 2020
  • Employment ticked 0.7% higher for the quarter
  • NZD didn’t react much to the report as the data covered the period before the strict five-week lockdown
  • Analysts see the unemployment rate rising to 5.8% in Q2 2020
  • Participation rate could slip from 70.4% to 69.8%, while employment could dip by 1.8%

Quarterly inflation expectations (Aug 6, 3:00 am GMT)

  • Survey participants saw inflation at 1.24% in two years’ time, down from 1.94% from the previous quarter
  • Vaccine headlines and strong Chinese trade data helped lift NZD during the session
  • Inflation expectations could slip further to 1.0% this week

Top-tier releases from Australia and China

  • As New Zealand’s major trading partners, data releases from China and Australia can affect the demand for NZD
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) (Aug 4, 4:30 am GMT) is expected to keep its policies unchanged in August
  • China’s Caixin PMIs are expected to slip a bit from their July’s figures
  • China’s trade surplus (Aug 7, Asian session) could tighten in August

Market risk sentiment

  • Coronavirus cases, vaccine headlines, stimulus prospects, and lockdown updates will continue to affect the demand for high-yielding currencies like NZD
  • PMI reports and central bank decisions from other major economies can also influence overall risk appetite this week

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers NZD as “oversold” against AUD, EUR, GBP, and CHF
  • NZD/USD is about to hit overbought territory on the daily time frame
  • NZD/CAD remains in the neutral zone
NZD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • EMAs show NZD’s short and long-term bearish trends against AUD, EUR, and CHF
  • NZD/CAD could see retracement and reversal opportunities this week
  • NZD/USD and NZD/JPY generally remain on bullish trends
NZD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • Kiwi saw the most volatility against the safe havens and the pound in the last 30 days
NZD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for July 27 – 31!