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The RBA is kicking up the month, yo!
Ready to trade the Aussie for another week?
Check out the potential catalysts you need to know about:
RBA’s statement (Aug 4, 4:30 am GMT)
- As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.25% in July
- RBA’s event was a non-mover, partly because traders were more focused on pricing in (read: selling) headlines of the state of Victoria reimposing a four-week lockdown in Melbourne amidst a surge of coronavirus cases
- Markets don’t see policy changes from the RBA in August
- RBA’s quarterly policy statement will be printed on August 7, at 1:30 am GMT
Lower-tier releases
- Trade balance (Aug 4, 1:30 am GMT) to reflect a tighter trade surplus as imports fall faster than exports in June
- Retail sales (Aug 4, 1:45 am GMT) expected to slow down from 16.9% to 5.0% in June
- AIG’s construction index (Aug 4, 10:30 pm GMT) to improve from 35.5 to 36.0 in July
- AIG’s services index (Ag 6, 10:30 pm GMT) could rise from 31.5 to 32.0 in July
Market risk sentiment
- Top-tier releases from China – Australia’s biggest trading partner – will affect AUD’s intraweek trends
- China’s Caixin PMIs and trade surplus numbers are expected to slip from their previous readings
- Coronavirus cases, vaccine headlines, stimulus prospects, and lockdown updates will continue to affect the demand for high-yielding currencies like AUD
- Economic and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China can also affect AUD’s price action
Technical snapshot
- The Aussie has hit Stochastic’s “overbought” status against the dollar and Kiwi
- AUD may be “oversold” against the major European currencies
- AUD/JPY remains in the neutral zone on the daily time frame
- SMAs point to AUD/JPY enjoying short and long-term bullish trends
- Watch out for the Aussie trading below the 200 SMA against GBP, CHF, and EUR
- Look out for short-term retracement opportunities on AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, and AUD/NZD
- AUD was most volatile against the safe havens and the pound for most of July
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for July 27 – 31!