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The RBA is kicking up the month, yo!

Ready to trade the Aussie for another week?

Check out the potential catalysts you need to know about:

RBA’s statement (Aug 4, 4:30 am GMT)

  • As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.25% in July
  • RBA’s event was a non-mover, partly because traders were more focused on pricing in (read: selling) headlines of the state of Victoria reimposing a four-week lockdown in Melbourne amidst a surge of coronavirus cases
  • Markets don’t see policy changes from the RBA in August
  • RBA’s quarterly policy statement will be printed on August 7, at 1:30 am GMT

Lower-tier releases

  • Trade balance (Aug 4, 1:30 am GMT) to reflect a tighter trade surplus as imports fall faster than exports in June
  • Retail sales (Aug 4, 1:45 am GMT) expected to slow down from 16.9% to 5.0% in June
  • AIG’s construction index (Aug 4, 10:30 pm GMT) to improve from 35.5 to 36.0 in July
  • AIG’s services index (Ag 6, 10:30 pm GMT) could rise from 31.5 to 32.0 in July

Market risk sentiment

  • Top-tier releases from China – Australia’s biggest trading partner – will affect AUD’s intraweek trends
  • China’s Caixin PMIs and trade surplus numbers are expected to slip from their previous readings
  • Coronavirus cases, vaccine headlines, stimulus prospects, and lockdown updates will continue to affect the demand for high-yielding currencies like AUD
  • Economic and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China can also affect AUD’s price action

Technical snapshot

  • The Aussie has hit Stochastic’s “overbought” status against the dollar and Kiwi
  • AUD may be “oversold” against the major European currencies
  • AUD/JPY remains in the neutral zone on the daily time frame
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • SMAs point to AUD/JPY enjoying short and long-term bullish trends
  • Watch out for the Aussie trading below the 200 SMA against GBP, CHF, and EUR
  • Look out for short-term retracement opportunities on AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, and AUD/NZD
AUD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • AUD was most volatile against the safe havens and the pound for most of July
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for July 27 – 31!