Partner Center Find a Broker

Whattup, trading warriors!

Can this week’s retail sales and manufacturing numbers restore the dollar’s appeal as a safe haven currency?

Here are the potential catalysts from the U.S. that might affect the dollar’s price action:

Retail sales (Jul 16, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Headline retail sales saw a record jump of 17.7% in May, more than double the market’s forecasts
  • Core retail sales also rocketed from -15.2% to 12.4%
  • USD spiked higher at the news and sustained its bullish momentum until the end of the U.S. session
  • Markets expect headline retail sales to cool down to 4.5% in June
  • Core retail sales could improve by another 4.2%

Manufacturing-related reports

  • Empire State manufacturing index (Jul 15, 12:30 pm GMT) to improve from -0.2 to 6.5
  • Industrial production (Jul 15, 1:15 pm GMT) seen jumping from 1.4% to 4.0%
  • Philly Fed manufacturing index (Jul 16, 12:30 pm GMT) could ease from 27.5 to 17.0
  • TIC long-term purchases (Jul 16, 8:00 pm GMT) saw a 128.4B net decrease in April
  • Building permits (Jul 17, 12:30 pm GMT) expected to gain by another 2.5% in June

Overall dollar demand

  • Q2 2020 earnings reports will confirm just how deep closely watched U.S. companies are in a recession so far this year
  • FOMC members like Williams (Jul 13, 3:30 pm and Jul 16, 3:10 pm GMT), Brainard (Jul 14, 6:00 pm GMT), and Harker (Jul 15, 4:00 pm GMT) could give clues on the Fed’s near-term outlook and plans
  • Rising coronavirus cases, ICU bed capacity, and reopening plans will affect the dollar’s appeal as a safe haven currency
  • Headlines over another set of stimulus can also influence the dollar’s price action

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers the dollar “oversold” against the Kiwi and pound on the daily time frame
  • The dollar may soon reach oversold conditions against the Aussie and franc
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • The dollar is trading below short and long-term SMAs against the safe havens, Aussie, Kiwi, and the euro
  • Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on USD/CAD or GBP/USD
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • The dollar saw the most volatility against the Aussie, pound, Kiwi, and euro in the last seven days
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for July 6 – 10!