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Can this week’s retail sales and manufacturing numbers restore the dollar’s appeal as a safe haven currency?
Here are the potential catalysts from the U.S. that might affect the dollar’s price action:
Retail sales (Jul 16, 12:30 pm GMT)
- Headline retail sales saw a record jump of 17.7% in May, more than double the market’s forecasts
- Core retail sales also rocketed from -15.2% to 12.4%
- USD spiked higher at the news and sustained its bullish momentum until the end of the U.S. session
- Markets expect headline retail sales to cool down to 4.5% in June
- Core retail sales could improve by another 4.2%
Manufacturing-related reports
- Empire State manufacturing index (Jul 15, 12:30 pm GMT) to improve from -0.2 to 6.5
- Industrial production (Jul 15, 1:15 pm GMT) seen jumping from 1.4% to 4.0%
- Philly Fed manufacturing index (Jul 16, 12:30 pm GMT) could ease from 27.5 to 17.0
- TIC long-term purchases (Jul 16, 8:00 pm GMT) saw a 128.4B net decrease in April
- Building permits (Jul 17, 12:30 pm GMT) expected to gain by another 2.5% in June
Overall dollar demand
- Q2 2020 earnings reports will confirm just how deep closely watched U.S. companies are in a recession so far this year
- FOMC members like Williams (Jul 13, 3:30 pm and Jul 16, 3:10 pm GMT), Brainard (Jul 14, 6:00 pm GMT), and Harker (Jul 15, 4:00 pm GMT) could give clues on the Fed’s near-term outlook and plans
- Rising coronavirus cases, ICU bed capacity, and reopening plans will affect the dollar’s appeal as a safe haven currency
- Headlines over another set of stimulus can also influence the dollar’s price action
Technical snapshot
- Stochastic considers the dollar “oversold” against the Kiwi and pound on the daily time frame
- The dollar may soon reach oversold conditions against the Aussie and franc

- The dollar is trading below short and long-term SMAs against the safe havens, Aussie, Kiwi, and the euro
- Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on USD/CAD or GBP/USD

- The dollar saw the most volatility against the Aussie, pound, Kiwi, and euro in the last seven days

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for July 6 – 10!