USD Weekly Forecast – Can The Dollar Regain Its Safe Haven Appeal?

Partner Center Find a Broker

Whattup, trading warriors!

Can this week’s retail sales and manufacturing numbers restore the dollar’s appeal as a safe haven currency?

Here are the potential catalysts from the U.S. that might affect the dollar’s price action:

Retail sales (Jul 16, 12:30 pm GMT)

Headline retail sales saw a record jump of 17.7% in May, more than double the market’s forecasts
Core retail sales also rocketed from -15.2% to 12.4%
USD spiked higher at the news and sustained its bullish momentum until the end of the U.S. session
Markets expect headline retail sales to cool down to 4.5% in June
Core retail sales could improve by another 4.2%

Empire State manufacturing index (Jul 15, 12:30 pm GMT) to improve from -0.2 to 6.5
Industrial production (Jul 15, 1:15 pm GMT) seen jumping from 1.4% to 4.0%
Philly Fed manufacturing index (Jul 16, 12:30 pm GMT) could ease from 27.5 to 17.0
TIC long-term purchases (Jul 16, 8:00 pm GMT) saw a 128.4B net decrease in April
Building permits (Jul 17, 12:30 pm GMT) expected to gain by another 2.5% in June

Q2 2020 earnings reports will confirm just how deep closely watched U.S. companies are in a recession so far this year
FOMC members like Williams (Jul 13, 3:30 pm and Jul 16, 3:10 pm GMT), Brainard (Jul 14, 6:00 pm GMT), and Harker (Jul 15, 4:00 pm GMT) could give clues on the Fed’s near-term outlook and plans
Rising coronavirus cases, ICU bed capacity, and reopening plans will affect the dollar’s appeal as a safe haven currency
Headlines over another set of stimulus can also influence the dollar’s price action

Stochastic considers the dollar “oversold” against the Kiwi and pound on the daily time frame
The dollar may soon reach oversold conditions against the Aussie and franc

The dollar is trading below short and long-term SMAs against the safe havens, Aussie, Kiwi, and the euro
Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on USD/CAD or GBP/USD

The dollar saw the most volatility against the Aussie, pound, Kiwi, and euro in the last seven days